Last week we had the first meeting of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee under a new Chairman – Kevin Warsh.  Though Kevin Warsh replaces Jerome Powell as the Chairman, Powell still remains a Board of Governor as his term does not expire until early in 2028.  Expecting big changes in the direction of interest rates due to the leadership of a new Chairman?  The first meeting resulted in no change in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, which was expected.

The statement released by the Fed was simpler and featured the removal of language regarding future projections. But included in this simplified format was the removal of the bias towards lowering rates. Though the decision not to change rates was unanimous, the market read the atmosphere as leaning towards future rate increases based upon recent inflation trends. We will find out more about the tone of the meeting when the minutes are released in a few weeks.  But generally, those who are expecting immediate relief from high interest rates are likely to be disappointed.  There are generally two reasons for this likelihood. 

First, Chairman Warsh has indicated a preference for shrinking the Fed’s $6.7 trillion dollar balance sheet. This activity is known as quantitative tightening and can put upward pressure upon interest rates. Secondly, it is not likely that the Fed will be disposed to lower interest rates anytime soon due to the fact that inflation is currently elevated. The recent strong jobs report gives the Fed room to stay neutral at this juncture because the economy is showing no signs of slipping into a recession.  Of course, geopolitical events in places such as Iran could always alter this scenario.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates fell slightly in a very volatile week influenced by the Iran “agreement” and the Fed meeting.  According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates eased to 6.47% last week from 6.52% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also decreased to 5.81%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.81%, 0.34% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased this week averaging 6.47%. Incoming data continues to reflect a resilient consumer, with retail sales improving and pending home sales strengthening, suggesting purchase demand is continuing to modestly improve.”  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

For parents, helping a child buy their first home used to be a question: Should you step in, or should they do it on their own? But after years of first-time buyers being priced out, a new consensus seems to be forming: If you can help, you probably should. Nearly three-quarters of parents with children at home (74%) say they would consider or have already started financially planning to help their kids buy a home one day, according to a recent Northwestern Mutual survey. For cash-rich parents, that help may come through “giving while living”—passing liquid assets to children now, rather than waiting for an inheritance later. The practice is already having a measurable effect on the housing market. In 2025, 22% of first-time buyers said they used a gift or loan from a friend or relative for their down payment, according to the National Association of Realtors®. But not every parent has a large pile of cash to hand over. What many do have, however, is home equity. And that raises a more complicated question: Should parents use the value they’ve built up in their own home to help their child buy one of their own? As Jacob Dayan, managing partner at Dayan Capital LLC, puts it, the decision has two parts: “First, how do you obtain the money, and second, how do you transfer the money?”  Dayan says parents typically have three main ways to pull money from their home: a home equity loan, a home equity line of credit, or a cash-out refinance. Part of parents’ decision on how to protect their home equity is how to transfer funds once they tap them. Dayan says families generally have two options: a documented gift or a documented intrafamily loan. A gift is often the simpler route, especially if the goal is to help a child with a down payment or closing costs without adding another monthly obligation. But larger gifts can come with tax-reporting considerations, so parents should speak with a tax adviser before moving money. An intrafamily loan can make sense if parents want the child to repay them over time. But it should be treated like a real loan, with written terms, a repayment schedule, and an interest rate that satisfies IRS rules.  Source: Realtor.com

The median age of first-time homebuyers hit a record high of 40 last year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. To make housing more affordable, some people are embracing a nontraditional path to owning a home: co-buying with a friend. “This is a new and interesting way to get into real estate,” says Brett Humphrey, CEO of Joynt, a platform that helps people buy and manage property together. “I firmly believe this is a viable way to get into the housing market.” Six in 10 renters say they are open to the idea of purchasing a home with a friend, according to a survey of nearly 2,000 renters conducted by Rocket Mortgage. Of those, 64% say affordability is what drives them to consider this route. About two-thirds of those who would buy a home with a friend are from the Gen X and millennial generations, perhaps signaling that middle-aged Americans are tired of waiting for the time when they can afford a house on their own.  Here’s what you should know if you want to buy a house with a friend:

• You should fully disclose all your finances first.
• It’s smart to rent together before buying together.
• There should be a written agreement for shared expenses, taxes and house rules.
• Having an exit strategy in place before making the purchase is essential.
• Both applicants’ financial information will be reviewed.
• You can buy a house as an LLC, although mortgage options may be limited. Source: US News and World Report
•  

Existing-home sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem—including agents, homebuyers and sellers—with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains.” “Inventory still remains tight,” Yun added. “Multiple offers, though not as intense as a few years ago, are still occurring. At the same time, days on market are lengthening on average, implying that consumers are taking their time before making decisions.”  Source: NAR

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We have been on a very consistent merry-go-round this year and it all revolves around the conflict in Iran. It seems like every few days we are close to a breakthrough, but then we hear reports of missiles landing. And even the reports of a breakthrough are conflicting as we hear of an agreement which is really an extension of the pact to temporarily halt hostilities – which has limited but not eliminated the hostilities. One side says we are close, the other says we are not there.  This increases confusion and uncertainty.

One thing the markets do not like is increased levels of uncertainty.  And we have seen the markets reacting to this uncertainty in different ways. The most severe reaction has been seen in the volatility of oil prices as the supply of oil travelling through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen dramatically. The price of oil has increased significantly, yet it falls every few days on reports of this elusive breakthrough. The higher price of oil causes higher inflation which in turn has raised interest rates, a major factor affecting the real estate market.

One sector which has been incredibly resilient has been the stock market. While stock prices fell initially due to the news surrounding the conflict, stock indices have not only recovered these losses, they have also added further gains. While oil prices and interest rates have been riding the merry-go-round, stocks have taken the escalator.  While analysts fret about an inflation fueled recession, apparently stock investors are not too worried. Should we take a clue from the stock market and perceive that better times are right around the corner?  The Fed meets today and it is their first meeting with a new chairman. Most believe that current elevated inflation rates will keep the pause on rate decreases going for quite some time.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates rose slightly in the past week as events in Iran continued to dominate the headlines.  According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.52% last week from 6.48% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also increased to 5.84%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.84%, 0.32% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Stronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five-month high. Importantly, homebuyers are looking past the short-term rate fluctuations and actively entering the market, signaling renewed confidence in homeownership opportunities.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

The same generational shifts reshaping the housing market are changing something even more foundational to American life: driving. It’s well known that younger adults are delaying homeownership under intense affordability pressure. What’s less discussed is that they’re also delaying car ownership and driving less overall. Meanwhile, as more Americans age in place, a growing number of older adults are expected to age out of driving, raising urgent questions about mobility and independence. That quiet retreat from the driver’s seat could have major consequences for the future of housing. Even as demand grows for neighborhoods where daily life can be lived on foot or by transit, most new homes are still being built for a lifestyle that assumes a car is not only desirable but also required. Vehicle miles traveled per capita have declined 2.3% since 2019, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration. And today, the average American drives nearly 5% less than they did two decades ago—proof that the slow fade of car dependency was already underway even before the COVID-19 pandemic rewired daily routines.  The trend is especially sharp among younger adults. From 2001 to 2017, vehicle travel among this group dropped 19%, nearly double the decline seen in their older peers. From 2017 to 2022, the shift accelerated even more dramatically: Daily trips among young adults fell nearly 50%, according to research from UCLA.  And while turning 16 used to be synonymous with a trip to the DMV, it no longer is today. Only 1 in 25 licensed drivers is 19 or younger, a marked decline from a decade ago, according to data from the Department of Transportation. Online shopping, remote work, and the rise of streaming services are all seen as playing a role in these trends.  Fewer willing drivers introduces a huge question for the housing market: Where will these nondrivers live? Transit-oriented development (TOD) is one solution.  TOD is almost exactly what it sounds like: housing and land use designed around transit, to create compact, walkable communities where people can get around without relying on a car.  Source: Realtor.com

A small but growing share of Gen Zers managing to buy a home despite historically unaffordable prices, and when the average age of first-time buyers has climbed to 40. They are outpacing millennials, many of whom also struggled to buy at the same age. They’re less likely to use help from parents and far more likely to be single buyers, especially women. “Gen Zers seem to have learned from millennials,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, which tracks buying trends. She also credits their use of social media for financial planning. “They’re embracing the knowledge that is at hand.”  The rise in the youngest homeowners is noteworthy because of the odds stacked against them. A massive housing shortage has pushed prices to record high unaffordability for both renters and owners. People in their 20s remain a sliver of buyers overall, but they’re growing. The National Association of Realtors found last year 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before. Overall, Gen Z homebuyers had an average household income of $76,000 dollars, according to the Realtors association. And they are financially savvy.  “They’re taking advantage of government [down-payment assistance] programs at higher rates than all other generations,” said NAR economist Lautz. “They seem to be a little more reticent when it comes to student loan debt, which has historically been one of the biggest hurdles for millennials to enter into homeownership.”  Also, the share of single Gen Z buyers is double that of millennials at the same age. “I asked around the office to try and understand what’s happening here and I was reminded, COVID,” Lautz said. “So. I think perhaps delays in getting marriage started, and partners started, could be one of the things going on here for these young adults.”  Source: WAMU 88.5/NPR

Buyers of newly built homes save an average of $25,335 over the first 10 years of ownership compare to buyers of 20-year-old homes. That’s according to new research from Realtor.com, which said the savings are driven by lower energy bills and fewer major repairs. “Homeownership is not a one-time expense, and the ongoing costs of owning a home are where new construction really shines,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “Buyers who focus only on the listing price are missing a significant part of the financial picture.” Realtor.com said the findings show a wide geographic divide, with states in New England offering the greatest advantage and Southern states the least. It identifies 16 metros where a decade of savings from new construction fully erases the price gap with existing homes. New construction savings come in two forms, Realtor.com said — lower utility costs from more energy-efficient construction, and delayed replacement of major systems such as HVAC, roofs, and water heaters.  To help buyers see these savings in action, Realtor.com said it is introducing interactive total cost of ownership content through a dedicated cost of ownership hub and experience on new construction listings, showing personalized 10-year savings estimates on utilities, roof replacement, HVAC, and water heater costs compared to a comparable resale home. Source: MP Daily

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We have always pointed to the monthly employment report as the bellwether of economic indicators. And it is hard to argue against this line of reasoning. After all, it is working individuals that power the economy.  When jobs are plentiful, the economy is typically humming along.  And when unemployment rises, we are typically heading for a recession.

During the past year and a half, we have turned these assumptions around somewhat.  The economy has created fewer jobs in the past year than any non-recessionary period in memory.  We have previously discussed the reasons for the lack of job creation. And with regard to predictions and analysis, we are in unchartered territory. There are so many factors in play this year that it will be hard to predict whether this pace of job creation will be a new normal.  Certainly, elevated inflation numbers will also be an important part of the equation.  One thing is for sure, there is never a dull moment when you are talking about our nation’s economy and the world’s economy as well.

Speaking of jobs. In May the economy added 172,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.  The previous two months of gains were revised upward by 93,000 jobs.  Thus far in 2026, the economy has added an average of approximately 110,000 jobs per month.  Wage growth was up 0.3% from the previous month and 3.4% annually.  Overall, this report was considered a considerable improvement compared to last year.  Considering just a few years ago, a gain of 150,000 jobs was considered average jobs growth in a decent economy, this brings us back to the question we asked previously.  Is the last quarter bringing us back to the normal rate of jobs growth, or are we going to have a new normal of lower jobs added?

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to be relatively stable from week-to-week despite major daily volatility. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates eased to 6.48% last week from 6.53% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also decreased to 5.79%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.85%, 0.37% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 6.48% this week. With mortgage rates in the mid-6% range and income growth outpacing home price growth, housing affordability is marginally improving.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

A new job, a new city, a new school district. Those changes usually come before a mortgage application. And the data makes that clear: renting is still the dominant first step for most movers, especially when the move crosses state lines. Nationally, about 27.5% of interstate movers own a home in their first year after moving. That means that nearly three-quarters start out as renters. That share drops even further for international movers. In contrast, households that move locally—within the same county—are much more likely to buy right away. This pattern isn’t new. In fact, it’s been remarkably consistent over time. Looking back nearly two decades, the share of interstate movers who own their homes has followed the broader housing market conditions. In the mid-2000s, roughly 30% of interstate movers were homeowners. That share fell sharply during the housing bust, bottoming out below 20% in the early 2010s. As the market recovered, homeownership among movers gradually increased, reaching the mid-20% range by the late 2010s. Then came the pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, the share of interstate movers buying homes rose above 30%, peaking near 33%. Ultra-low mortgage rates, remote work flexibility, and a surge of relocations made purchasing a home financially feasible for many households. But by 2024, the share of interstate movers who own a home is back to 27.5%, almost exactly where it was in 2019. While the national average tells us that most interstate movers rent initially, some metro areas are clearly defying that trend. What these markets have in common is a combination of relative affordability and available housing stock.  Source: NAR Economists’ Outlook

ABC10 anchor Lora Painter helps answer a viewer’s question about today’s housing market and takes a closer look at a strategy some homebuyers are using to secure lower mortgage rates, despite borrowing costs remaining above 6% at times. Viewer Laura Wasowicz-Pollard wrote in saying: “A friend of ours just bought their first home by assuming a 3% mortgage rate from the sellers. Can you explain how that works? Seems like a great way to bypass the higher interest rates right now.”  To answer the question, Sacramento-area real estate broker Kevin Oto explained how mortgage assumptions work and why they can appeal to buyers trying to improve affordability. “So if you’re assuming someone’s mortgage, it means you’re buying a house, and the buyer is going to take over the seller’s existing mortgage while keeping that low rate,” said Kevin Oto, broker and owner of Greenhaven Capitol. Assuming a mortgage allows a buyer to take over a seller’s existing home loan, including the remaining balance, interest rate and repayment term.  Oto said buyers may benefit when sellers purchased homes in 2021 or 2022, when mortgage rates were significantly lower.  “It’s possible, but it’s not as easy as it sounds. The loan first of all has to be assumable, and typically it’s only FHA or VA or USDA loans that are assumable. So conventional loans are typically not assumable,” Oto said. Buyers must still qualify with the seller’s lender, which is similar to the approval process for a traditional mortgage. Another hurdle is the home equity difference, or the gap between the current loan balance and the home’s purchase price. Buyers are typically responsible for covering that amount themselves. The process can also take longer than a traditional home loan, which may create challenges in a competitive housing market.  Source: ABC 10 Sacramento

Due to mortgage repayment and property appreciation, the majority of Americans’ wealth originates from their homes.  To find out if returns differ by income and demography, a new study conducted by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College looked at the selling side of the transaction. The degree to which home-seller returns fluctuate throughout the course of a homeowner’s life, and specifically whether elderly homeowners receive the same returns as their younger counterparts, is one important question. For a home with the typical holding duration (11 years), an 80-year-old seller realizes roughly 0.5% less annually than a 45-year-old, which translates to a 5% lower sales price. This decrease results in a $20,000 loss on the average property price of $400,000. This result is the result of two causes. First, older people’s residences are less likely to be kept up. Second, elder homeowners are more likely to sell to investors and sell their houses off-MLS. Policy measures could be helpful in this case.  In Illinois, legislation aimed at increasing the transparency of private listings led to a considerable decrease in the number of private listings and the size of the age difference.  Source: MP Daily

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For those who live in California, the term June Gloom should not be a surprise. For the rest of our readers, the June Gloom is a period of cloudy, cooler days in late spring and early summer especially in Southern California.  It is a precursor for sunny, hotter days on the way. Well, this spring has been comprised of cloudy cooler days for the economy and especially the real estate market.  But there is potential for sunny and hotter days ahead.  Mind you, cloudy and cool is not the same as cold and miserable.  We have had some decent economic numbers released this spring. But in no way can we describe today’s economy as hot.

What would it take to heat up the real estate market? That would take three major ingredients.  First, lower inflation, which would lead to lower mortgage rates. Second, more housing inventory. Third, some semblance of peace in the Middle East, which would lead us back to the first ingredient. More importantly, it would add a sprinkle of consumer confidence which is always an important seasoning for a warmer economy and housing momentum. And perhaps a hot economy would not be a great idea anyways. Just a bit warmer would do the trick without igniting more inflation in the long run.

This week we will get a reading which will tell us more about the state of the economy. On Friday, May’s jobs report will be released.  April was the first month of stable jobs growth after a roller-coaster first quarter. In January we added 130,000 jobs, in February we lost 156,000 jobs and in March we gained 185,000 jobs.  April was a more stable gain of 115,000 jobs. Analysts are only expecting around 55,000 jobs to be added, thus another gain of 100,000 or slightly more jobs would be welcome – especially if the unemployment rate stays steady at 4.3%. Of course, the analysts will be looking at wage growth closely as inflation has been heating up due to the rise in energy prices.   

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates were relatively stable in the last week, though they trended downward as news of a possible Iran solution was hitting the wires. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose slightly to 6.53% last week from 6.51% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also increased to 5.87%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.89%, 0.36% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.53% this week. Pending home sales have increased three months in a row, indicating there’s latent demand and homebuyers are ready to jump back into the market if mortgage rates decline.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Realtor.com® released its first quarter 2026 New Construction Insights Report, revealing a tale of two housing markets: an urban new construction market defined by scarcity and steep premiums, and a suburban one marked by stability and competitive pricing. The report finds that while new construction has shown remarkable resilience overall, where new homes are being built is shaping who can afford them and how much they will pay. Urban new builds are rare. Nationally, just 10.9% of new construction listings are in urban zip codes, compared to nearly 30% of existing homes. When they do appear, buyers pay a significant premium: urban new construction carries a 78.4% premium over urban existing homes, with a median listing price of $738,662 versus $414,000 for existing urban homes. “New construction is overwhelmingly a suburban story in the United States, and that has real consequences for buyers who want to live in cities,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “Urban new builds are difficult to deliver, and that difficulty is priced in. When a new home does come to market in an urban zip code, it commands a price that reflects just how hard it was to build there.” New construction homes for sale are overwhelmingly located in suburban areas and that impacts their price. Nearly 80% of new homes for sale are suburban, compared to just over 55% of existing homes. Suburban new builds carry just a 7.0% premium over suburban existing homes. Suburban new construction is plentiful, competitive, and concentrated in the South, where listing prices tend to be lower. Urban new construction is a different market entirely. New construction is underrepresented in urban areas. Nearly 30% of existing homes for sale are in urban zip codes, but just over 10% of new construction homes are.  Source: Realtor.com®

About 85% of homeowners spent money on an unplanned home repair in 2025, according to a report from Clever Offers. The firm’s report found that half of American homeowners say their home needs some repairs or renovations that they can’t afford right now; two-thirds (65%) admit they’ve ignored a home maintenance task within the past five years. But putting off maintenance resulted in repairs that could have been avoided for nearly one in three homeowners. Of those, 72% spent at least $1,000 on a preventable repair and 44% spent at least $5,000. Among homeowners who have renovated in the past five years, 70% went over budget and 58% have at least one regret, including spending too much money (22%) and the renovation taking too long (16%). Clever Offers found that 30% of homeowners have gone into debt completing a renovation project and 19% have had to stop a project early due to unexpected costs. Over half of homeowners (58%) have nothing saved for emergency repairs. Among those with savings for renovations, 32% have less than $5,000 and 60% have less than $10,000. Nearly half of Americans (46%) plan to spend more on renovations in 2026 than in 2025, including 46% who expect to spend $5,000 or more and 28% who plan to spend at least $10,000. Although half of homeowners (51%) say they’ve spent more on renovations than planned since purchasing their home, 64% would rather renovate than move to a home that’s already been remodeled.  Source: The MBA

U.S. population growth slowed notably in the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, with the nation expanding by just 0.5% in 2025, roughly half the pace of the prior year. The deceleration was primarily driven by a sharp decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, while natural change remained relatively stable. Population growth remains concentrated in the South and parts of the West, while many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experienced slower growth or population declines. These forces are not only redefining where population growth occurs but also reshaping the geographic foundations of housing demand. At the county level, population growth slowed across much of the country, with a majority of the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia experiencing decelerating population growth in 2025. Of the 2,066 counties that grew in 2024, nearly 80% saw their growth slow or reverse last year. In many cases, counties already experiencing population loss saw those declines deepen further. Net Domestic Migration (Americans moving from one county to another) has become the most visible driver of county-level divergence. Population flows continue to shift away from the largest and most expensive counties toward smaller and less densely populated areas.  Collectively, the 50 counties with population exceeding one million recorded a net domestic migration loss of 637,634 in 2025. In contrast, large counties with populations between 50,000 and 999,999 posted a combined gain of 533,766 residents, while medium-sized counties with populations between 15,000 and 49,999 gained 95,095. Even the smallest counties, with population below 15,000 residents, recorded a slight net gain of 8,773.  Source: The National Association of Home Builders

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Is it us or is this year moving extraordinarily fast? We just celebrated Memorial Day, which is the unofficial start of the summer season.  Even pools up north are open by Memorial Day.  Memorial Day is also the time when the spring real estate market morphs into the summer season. But there was so much going on this spring that we are wondering whether the season will become extended. Between the Iranian conflict, higher gas prices and fluctuating mortgage rates there has been a lot for the real estate market to absorb.

These factors did not cancel the spring selling season, but they certainly caused demand to be somewhat muted, especially in certain areas of the country.  We continue to believe that there is a good amount of latent demand built up and it would not take much to keep the ball rolling throughout the summer. What factors could help this equation? One factor is already present – there are more homes available for prospective purchasers. A shortage of inventory has been a factor which has kept demand lower for quite a few years. Another factor would be a true resolution of the conflict in Iran. 

Ending the conflict would likely bring both gas prices and mortgage rates down. This would certainly bolster the real estate market.  Keep in mind that ending the conflict would not necessarily mean an immediate return to the levels we witnessed at the beginning of the year. As we saw at the end of the pandemic-induced recession, shipping and other snarls do not disappear overnight. But progress in that direction would be a very welcome phenomenon. Even if the conflict stays in a muted stalemate we have seen over the past several weeks, this could help the real estate and several other markets to normalize — hopefully.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to rise last week. There continues to be a lot of volatility due to the lack of Iran conflict peace progress contributing to elevated inflation numbers. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.51% last week from 6.36% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also increased to 5.85%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.86%, 0.35% higher than today. The good news is that demand for homes seems to be holding up despite the increase in rates as pending home sales rose last month according to the National Association of Realtors®. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

America’s housing story is always changing, not just through market forces, but also through people’s choices. Over the past decade, the nation has added about 10.7 million single-family homes. However, the number of single-family rentals has declined, from 15.2 million to 14.4 million. As a result, the share of single-family homes being rented has fallen from roughly one in five to about one in six. This shows that while America continues to build homes and add households, a smaller share of those homes end up in the rental market. This is because many landlords have sold to owner-occupants, and the surge of apartment buildings being built has given renters more options elsewhere. After peaking near 19% in 2014, the share of single-family rentals has gradually decreased, stabilizing around 15.8% since 2023.  Renting a single-family home remains most common in some local markets, for example in college towns strong housing demand from students and newcomers keeps the single-family rental market outperforming even alongside plenty of apartment buildings.  Patterns show that the geography of single-family rentals mirrors that of America’s housing. In markets dominated by single-family homes, renting them is simply part of the composition of their housing stock. And, in fast-growing, more affordable metros, rising rental shares reflect sustained housing demand.  Source: The National Association of Realtors

The 2026 ServiceLink State of Homebuying Report unveils a deep look into the psychology of today’s homebuyers, uncovering their biggest stressors, time pressures, economic uncertainties and ever-growing reliance on digital tools. “Between the paperwork, negotiations, securing a good rate and figuring out what the price of homeownership will actually cost them, today’s homebuyers are telling us that they are overwhelmed,” said Dave Steinmetz, president, origination services. “Many are being forced to compromise, stretching beyond their budgets yet still not getting everything they want in a home. Instead, they are craving ease, value, transparency and long-term reliability. Recognizing these needs can help lenders make meaningful shifts to streamline their processes to get them a competitive edge, meeting today’s buyers where they are.” Across the key findings, a consistent picture emerges: Today’s buyers are stressed, time-strapped, inventive and digitally fluent, yet they’re also driven by a strong desire for simplicity, affordability, clear communication and long-term stability. These traits shape how they budget, what they compromise on, how they use technology and what they expect from lenders throughout the process.  The most stressful part of the process is the home price offer and negotiation (19%), followed by understanding all of the paperwork (15%), the closing process (12%) and securing a good mortgage rate (12%) – all pointing to opportunities for lenders to provide resources and education along the way.  To simplify the process, today’s buyers want to make the closing as easy as possible. For 39% of respondents, they would prefer to close on a future home purchase at their home or another location of their choosing, while 29% would prefer to close at a bank branch with a banker and 22% would like a fully virtual closing.  Source: Yahoo Finance

Rent growth has slowed. But for millions of American renters, that is not the same as relief. The monthly payment is what matters to renters, not the rate at which it increased, and by that measure 2024 was another year moving in the wrong direction. The number of cost-burdened renter households rose to 21.4 million in 2024, up from 20.9 million the year before. That means that 47.6% of renter households nationwide spent more than 30% of their income on rent. Severely burdened households, defined as those spending more than half their income on rent, climbed to 10.9 million from 10.5 million.  Slower rent growth does not mean rents are falling. It means rents are still rising, just less rapidly than before. That distinction matters for rent burdens. Households feel the level of rent they have to pay, not just the current growth rate. Even if rent growth slows, affordability can still be a challenge when rents remain high relative to incomes.  The cross-metro differences tell an important part of the story. Higher-rent metros do not just have higher rents, they also tend to have more renter households. That composition effect helps explain why there are more cost-burdened households in expensive markets.  In practice, both forces are at work. In expensive metros, renter households often face higher rents, and renter households make up a larger share of all households. That combination produces much larger metro-to-metro differences in the share of households experiencing rent stress.  Source: Zillow

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It is not only the jobs data which is hard for us to decipher this year. It is also the state of the economy and especially the real estate market as well.  There is always a modicum of uncertainty attached to the economy every year.  But this year seems to be somewhat of a special case.  If you want to imagine the economy as a recipe, we never know how the mix of ingredients will come together as a finished dish. This year we have the normal mix of ingredients, but we add and subtract some special sauces to the equation.

What are we adding? Two major ingredients are the on and off tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East which has snarled shipping traffic significantly and has contributed to a rekindling of inflation. What are we subtracting?  In this case population growth — as we have not only deported immigrants but also slowed the pace of legal immigration while birth rates have lagged as well. One might think that the economy is poised for a major contraction as a result of these factors, but not all these ingredients are negative for the economy. For example, increased defense spending can boost economic growth.  Other factors are hard to discern such as the effect of tariffs.

Which brings us to the real estate sector of the economy. Here we have an even more complicated mix of ingredients. For example, the real estate market has been slow for the past few years. This has created latent demand, which was really percolating at the start of the year as interest rates moved to multi-year lows. A rise in rates due to the conflict has stemmed this demand somewhat but has certainly not turned it off.  Plus, we can subtract another ingredient. The lock-in effect of homeowners who have been keeping their homes off the market due to low rates achieved during the pandemic has started to ease as life moves on. Regardless of the future of rates, this latent demand and easing lock-in effect are factors that will influence the market as the year progresses.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates were flat this week, though there was a lot of volatility due to the lack of Iran conflict peace progress and elevated inflation numbers released. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell slightly to 6.36% last week from 6.37% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also decreased one tick to 5.71%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.81%, 0.45% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates ticked down this week, averaging 6.36%. While purchase demand is softening, it remains above this time last year. Recent data also shows existing-home sales modestly edging up.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

The latest homeownership rate declined to 65.3% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). While this was a modest quarterly decrease, the broader picture continues to reflect significant affordability challenges. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, the homeownership rate is currently 3.9 percentage points lower and remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.3%. Compared to the previous year, homeownership rates decreased in only two age groups. Householders aged 45-54 experienced the largest drop, declining by 1.4 percentage points from 70.6% to 69.2%. Homeownership rates for householders aged 65 years and over declined 0.6 percentage points from a year ago. Among younger households, the homeownership rate for those under 35 increased 0.2 percentage points to 36.8% in the first quarter of 2026. The national rental vacancy rate inched up to 7.3% for the first quarter of 2026, on a steadily increasing trend since 2023. Meanwhile, the homeowner vacancy rate stayed at 1.1%. The upticks in both homeowner and rental vacancy rate signal an increase in the existing home supply.  The housing stock-based HVS revealed that the number of total households increased to 133.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 from 132.1 million a year ago. This increase was driven by both owner and renter household growth. Source: The National Association of Home Builders

Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC released its 2026 Home Shopping Season Report, identifying the key trends driving the U.S. housing market this spring. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, real estate agents report a market shaped by sellers beginning to let go of historically low mortgage rates and buyers who are re-entering the market with renewed intent – but are more cautious and discerning than in years past.  The findings are based on a survey of more than 700 real estate agents nationwide, offering a real-time snapshot of the 2026 spring housing market. Early indicators point to renewed buyer and seller activity, with 43% of agents reporting a busier home shopping season than last year. “We are seeing activity on both sides of the housing market this spring, but it is measured,” said Jason Waugh, President of Coldwell Banker Affiliates. Homeowners are beginning to let go of historically low mortgage rates, signaling a potential shift in one of the biggest and most persistent constraints on housing supply. For many sellers, the decision to list is less about timing the market and more about necessity. Seventy-seven percent of agents surveyed say they are working with homebuyers who are re-entering the market after previously pausing their search. Eighty percent of agents say homebuyers this spring are actively on the market and are not waiting for market conditions or rates to drop further before purchasing their next house.  Buyers are increasingly factoring in environmental risks, as well as climate-influenced costs like home insurance, into their purchasing decision – especially in regions most exposed to extreme weather. Source: Coldwell Banker

To encourage expansion of the affordable housing stock in the U.S. that would not otherwise be built without public support, municipalities are increasingly incentivizing mixed-income properties. Municipalities will approve construction plans for market-rate apartments so long as a percentage of total project units meet affordable or workforce housing income requirements. Developers are leveraging demand for affordable housing and new mixed-income property regulations to propose projects that may otherwise fail to earn approval. By including a percentage of affordable housing units in their multifamily projects, developers gain approval for the market-rate units that may not have been greenlit due to zoning restrictions or other permitting regulations at the municipal level. Many tax abatement programs exist across the U.S. to reduce or eliminate taxes for individuals or businesses pursuing economic development in specific areas. Program eligibility requirements vary widely and include provisions related to factors such as rent stabilization compliance, the duration that affordable units must be offered to would-be tenants, and the share of units requiring rent subsidies based on area median income metrics. These considerations are designed to boost volumes of much-needed affordable and workforce housing units, as professionals in the fields of teaching, nursing and emergency response are increasingly being priced out of housing in the communities where they work.   Even with bipartisan legislative efforts to bolster affordable housing stock nationwide and alleviate housing cost pressure — particularly after vigorous house price appreciation during the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated affordability issues — the development pipeline is starting to dwindle. Approximately 45,000 affordable housing units were expected to be brought online across the U.S. in 2025, but only 17,000 were delivered through the first half of the year. Nearly 50,000 additional units are expected in 2026, based on projects in developers’ pipelines.  Source: Scotsman Guide

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For those of you who are technology buffs, the task of parsing data is a familiar process.  For us laymen, it is a bunch of gobbledygook. This, we would like to introduce parsing for those who technology adverse. In this case we are taking data provided by the government and trying to make sense of that data.  Previously, we have discussed the economy moving from adding close to 200,000 jobs per month to a small percentage of this number for the past year.  Ordinarily, this would be a warning sign of a recession. More than a warning sign, it would be lights flashing red.

Yet even though economic growth has slowed, we seem to be chugging along without slipping into negative growth.  For the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy grew at a rate of 0.2%, or 0.7% on an annual basis.  We recently received the preliminary estimate of economic growth for the first quarter of 2026, which came in at 2.0%.  Again, slow growth but not a recession.  Most analysts are attributing this phenomenon to slowing population growth which is due to lagging birth rates but also influenced greatly by reduced legal immigration and the deportation of illegal immigrants as well.

Moving to the jobs numbers, in April the economy added 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The previous two months of jobs data were revised downward by 16,000 jobs. In addition, wage growth expanded by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.6% annually. How can we parse this data to understand what is happening to the economy?  We believe that we are entering the Twilight Zone of economic data. Somewhere that no one has tread before.  It is not a recession. But it is not robust economic growth either. It is somewhere within another dimension. Pretty clear now – right? 

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates increased for the second straight week, though they eased a bit toward the end of the week as optimism grew for an Iran solution. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.37% last week from 6.30% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans increased to 5.72%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.76%, 0.39% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Recent data points to slightly better conditions for buyers with a boost in new-home sales, median new-home prices being down to their lowest level since July 2021, and higher inventory than in recent years. Together, these trends could modestly ease affordability pressures through the spring homebuying season.”  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Adults ages 61 to 79 continue to dominate the housing market, making up the largest group of home buyers and sellers, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ newly released 2026 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report. NAR reports 88% percent of all buyers purchased their homes through a real estate agent, while 91% of sellers worked with an agent. Last year, baby boomers overtook millennials—the largest U.S. population—to become the biggest force of home buyers and sellers, proving to be a powerful backbone to the housing market. Their soaring home equity from decades of ownership may be freeing them to be more agile than other age groups who are struggling to afford higher home prices. Baby boomers accounted for 42% of buyers and 55% of all home sellers—the highest of any other age group, according to NAR’s 2026 report. “The housing market remains sharply divided between homeowners with equity and first-time buyers trying to break in—many of whom are younger millennials,” says Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist. “For many younger households, affordability challenges and limited inventory are still making homeownership difficult to achieve.”  First-time buyers have fallen to their lowest share on record, comprising 21% of buyers over the last year, according to NAR’s records dating back to 1981. That said, Lautz recently said that there may be openings gradually arising for more first-time buyers to get into the market. In March, they accounted for 32% of recent buyers, according to the March 2026 REALTORS® Confidence Index survey.  Source: NAR

While many of the latest conversations around the U.S. real estate market have focused on affordability and interest rates, one segment continues to move forward: foreign investors. While domestic buyers remain more cautious, investors from abroad are driving much of the transaction volume in many U.S. markets. One reason is that foreign buyers view risk, financing and timing differently. Perhaps the most important difference between the two is the role of interest rates. International investors are often less affected by interest rate fluctuations than domestic investors. One reason is that some of those investors purchase properties with cash, and those who do take out loans typically view U.S. mortgage rates as more attractive than those in their home country. Additionally, financing options might look very different in other countries. First, many international investors are used to adjustable-rate mortgages, but with a fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S., they might prefer to lock in a consistent payment so they can more easily predict cash flow. In addition, unique loan products like DSCR and other non-QM loans enable scalability for investors, including foreign nationals. Would-be purchasers may qualify for these types of loans based on a property’s ability to generate cash flow, not based on the borrower’s personal finances or U.S.-based income. On top of that, there is no formal limit on the number of DSCR loans someone can secure, enabling investors to scale and build their portfolios. Changes in currency also impact how global investors see the U.S. market. When the U.S. dollar weakens, foreign currencies can go further when used in the U.S. real estate market.  Finally, foreign investors think in longer time horizons than domestic homebuyers. They view U.S. real estate as one of the world’s greatest wealth preservers and growth vehicles. Over a sufficiently long horizon, U.S. real estate has trended upward.  Source: HousingWire

Despite a recent softening in rents for new leases, rental housing remains unaffordable for many households, according to a new report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. America’s Rental Housing 2026 noted that after record rent increases during the pandemic, national rent growth hovered near zero from mid-2023 into 2025. By the fourth quarter of 2025, asking rents for professionally managed apartments declined 0.6% year over year, with the majority of large markets seeing either small declines or only modest growth. Vacancy rates ticked up to 5.2%, matching their level a year earlier as rental demand slowed faster than new supply came online. But headline numbers showing flat or falling rents can be misleading, said Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “For millions of renters, especially those with lower and moderate incomes, housing is deeply unaffordable,” he said. “Years of rent increases and the loss of lower-cost units have left many households with no cushion and very few options.”  Multifamily construction remains elevated by historical standards but has retreated from recent peaks. Developers started 416,000 multifamily units last year; well below the three-decade high reached in 2022 but still above pre-pandemic norms.  “Rising construction and labor costs have contributed to this pullback,” the report said. Between January 2020 and December 2025, the prices of material inputs to new residential construction rose 42%, while employment costs for construction workers climbed 24%.  A record level of renters are cost burdened. In 2024, 22.7 million renter households spent more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities—49% of all renters. Some 12.1 million of these households were severely cost burdened, paying more than half their income for housing. Cost burdens have risen in 44 states and 88 of the 100 largest metro areas over the past five years and are increasingly affecting middle-income renters.  Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

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Usually, the jobs data does not resemble a roller coaster. But for the first quarter of the year, that is exactly what we have experienced. In January, the economy added 160,000 jobs, which was not bad. In February the economy shed 133,000 jobs, which is very bad. In March, the economy added 178,000 jobs (back to not bad). What a wild ride!  Both February and March data are still subject to revisions. If you average the three months, we added just under 70,000 jobs per month during the first quarter, again subject to revision.

Expecting things to get quieter? The April data to be released this week will include a full month of the economy operating under the influence of the war in the Middle East. The immediate effects of the conflict would be difficult to predict, but since we have had so many wild swings this year, any major movement will be even harder to decipher. Speaking of the conflict, by mid-April it was hard to decipher whether the conflict was on or off.  One side was declaring the Strait of Hormuz open, and the other side was declaring it closed.  Confused? We sure are. The rhetoric has caused a roller coaster effect upon oil prices.

We would guess that higher energy prices will cut economic growth somewhat in the short term. If the prices continue to trend higher, this contraction is likely to widen in the medium term. In the long term, defense spending will rise significantly, and this could boost economic growth and employment. While this increase might offset the earlier effects of the conflict, any boost in government spending will exacerbate government deficits, which in turn could create another set of difficulties highlighted by increased interest rates. The moral of the story?  Everything is connected and expect another wild ride.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates reversed course last week as the Fed expressed concern about prices in their decision to leave rates steady and the conflict rhetoric heated up significantly. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.30% last week from 6.23% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans increased to 5.64%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.76%, 0.46% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “As rates had modestly declined the last few weeks, purchase demand has accelerated with purchase applications rising to over 20 percent above a year ago. Purchase demand continues to hold up as prospective buyers react to both modestly lower rates and more inventory to choose from than the last few years.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Parents are taking financial leaps in order to help their children buy a home, helping young buyers navigate affordability while depleting their own resources. That’s according to a survey from Veterans United Home Loans, which found that six in ten parents have already helped a child afford a home, or are planning to. Military families are particularly open to helping a younger member buy a house, with 68% of Veterans and service members saying they have helped or plan to help, compared with 49% of civilians. The biggest way parents are helping is by contributing to the down payment (43% of respondents). Others are helping their children qualify for a mortgage (37%) or cover the closing costs (33%). But parents aren’t just focused on the short term. About one-third want to help their kids build wealth through homeownership, and others want to make monthly payments more manageable or help them buy in better neighborhoods or school districts. Help is mostly coming directly, whether it’s contributing to the down payment (33%), giving cash gifts (30%), paying off debt to strengthen credit (30%), covering closing costs (27%), or letting their kids live at home to save money (27%). Some, however, are even planning to contribute to furniture, renovations, or moving expenses. Investing in a house earlier in life, even if it requires support, could pay dividends for the whole family.  A recent report from Realtor.com found that buying a home earlier in life acts as a “wealth multiplier,” leading to a 22.5% higher net worth by age 50 than for those who wait until their 40s. That translates to $119,000 more.  Source: The Mortgage Note

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the 2025 population estimates, which include key metrics such as population growth, natural change, domestic and international migration, and net migration. Together, these indicators shed light on national demographic shifts, offering insight into housing market trends and changes in 2026. Last year, the U.S. experienced a historic decline in international migration, slowing overall population growth. Between 2024 and 2025, population growth totaled only 1.8 million (0.5%), the slowest increase since 2021, when the population growth rate reached a historic low (0.2%) amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown—largely caused by a decline in international migration—comes after a significant uptick in the U.S. population growth in 2024, when the nation grew by 1.0%, the fastest annual growth rate since 2006. Looking at domestic migration, the South region remained the most popular destination for U.S. movers, accounting for nine of the 15 states with the largest domestic migration gains.  While domestic migration increased in 32 states last year, international migration declined nationwide. In total, international migration dropped from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. As in prior years, Florida remained the most popular state for international movers, followed by Texas, California, and New York.  Source: The National Association of Realtors

A survey from Best Interest Financial and Clever Real Estate found that 35% of current homeowners with mortgage rates under 6% wouldn’t give up those mortgages for “any reason.” For those with mortgages under 3%, 52% said they wouldn’t give it up for any reason. About one in five said they would consider giving up their mortgage rate due to a major life change, like having a child or moving for a job. One in eight would give it up for the right home. Forty-seven percent of borrowers with mortgages under 6% do not think they could afford one at the current rate. Payments weigh heavily–one in 10 homeowners say mortgage payments are their biggest financial stressor. For those paying above 6%, almost two-thirds of respondents say they’ve cut back on spending, worked a side gig or made other sacrifices to pay it. Homeowners with high rates are much more likely to feel negative emotions about their mortgage. Only 22% of borrowers overall have negative feelings, compared with 41% of those with a rate of 6% or more. And 49% of mortgage holders say rates have affected their housing decisions. Eighty-seven percent intend to remain in their homes over the next two years.   While falling interest rates might increase the share of homeowners willing to sell, two-thirds don’t think mortgage rates will ever return to pandemic-era lows.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association

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If you are a member of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee, you can surely understand that things never seem to go as planned.  Certainly, the pandemic was not expected — and neither was the sharp rise in worldwide inflation which accompanied the recovery from the pandemic. As that was happening the war in Ukraine took center stage. While the inflation rate was recovering from all this, we got hit with another great unknown – the implementation of tariffs which had the potential to temporarily reignite inflation.

And just as we were finding out how tariffs were going to affect inflation, they were struck down by the Supreme Court and implemented in through another avenue which remains in question.  Enough curves for you in just six short years?  Just to make sure that there was enough twist and turns we get hit with an all-out conflict in Iran over several weeks. This was followed by a cease fire, and peace talks which wound up being extended. Regardless of the result of these talks, the conflict had an immediate and severe impact on the price of oil, thus igniting our inflation stats for the month of March.

Today the Fed meets with this concern to consider — is the spike in oil a temporary phenomenon which will dissipate immediately after the conflict, or will increased inflation seep through the economy as the price of other goods rise?  Some analysts are concerned that the Fed will consider increasing rates as a result of these fears. Maybe not today, but sometime in the future.  To further complicate things, the economy is likely to slow down as higher gas prices have the potential to depress consumer spending. On the other hand, increased defense spending is likely to provide a boost to the economy in the long run. There is one thing for sure, we would not want to be a member of the Fed in this environment as they face very precarious concerns without appropriate “fiscal” solutions.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued their recovery from their spike upwards following the start of the Iran conflict. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.23% last week from 6.30% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased to 5.58%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.81%, 0.58% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined again this week. Rates currently stand at their lowest level in the last three spring homebuying seasons. This improvement, coupled with a pickup in purchase applications and refinance activity, as well as an increase in monthly pending home sales, underscores signs of improving momentum in the market.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

The latest housing data tell a nuanced but encouraging story about women and homeownership. In 2025, more than 20 million single women owned homes — the highest number on record. Yet the homeownership rate among single women edged down from 51.9 percent to 50.9 percent. At first glance, that modest decline may appear to signal a setback. A closer look reveals something different: even in a challenging affordability environment, more single women became homeowners. The key is understanding what the homeownership rate measures. It reflects the share of households that own their home. While the number of single women homeowners increased modestly from last year, the total number of single-woman households grew even faster. Household formation among women outpaced ownership growth, resulting in a dip in the rate. In other words, the rate softened not because fewer women owned homes, but because more women formed independent households. The continued growth in single, female-headed homeowner households reflects broader demographic and economic shifts that have been building for years. Women have increasingly pursued higher education, and higher educational attainment is closely linked to stronger earnings potential and greater likelihood of homeownership. The share of single women with a bachelor’s degree or higher has risen from 20 percent in 2000 to 35 percent in 2025, expanding the pool of financially prepared buyers. Income growth has reinforced that trend. Real median household income among single women has increased from $42,000 in 2000 to $51,000 in 2025 (in 2025 dollars), improving purchasing power over time. While affordability remains strained relative to historical norms, these structural gains in education and income provide a durable foundation for homeownership.  Survey findings help explain why women continue to pursue homeownership in greater numbers. According to a recent National Association of Realtors study, single women remain a growing and influential segment of the home-buying population. They account for a larger share of purchases than single men and cite stability as a key motivation.  Source: First American

RentCafe has identified 90,300 apartment units in the process of conversion from offices. That’s up 28% from a year earlier, setting another record. It’s also nearly four times more than in 2022. Office conversions account for almost half of all future adaptive reuse projects nationwide, at 47%. That’s up from 42% last year. There are 193,900 planned projects in the pipeline. Of the remaining projects, 18% are from hotels, 16% are from industrial properties, and healthcare facilities, schools, retail and government buildings make up 19%. “COVID-19 is to the office market what e-commerce was to retail. As a result, there is simply too much office space in the market right now,” observed Peter Kolaczynski, director of Yardi Research (RentCafe’s parent company). In early 2025, the national office vacancy rate was around 20% and the physical occupancy in many buildings was around 50-55%. And, one-third of U.S. office loans are set to mature by 2027, so owners are under pressure to figure out how to deal with underperforming properties. “A massive amount of office building loans–over $213 billion–are coming due by the end of 2026. When loans mature, borrowers need to either pay them off or refinance them. The problem is that many of these office buildings have lost significant value largely due to remote work trends reducing demand,” said Doug Ressler, senior analyst and manager of business intelligence for Yardi Matrix. However, many office-to-apartment conversions take a few years to complete, slowed by structural constraints, construction costs, financing issues and regulatory requirements.  The types of office buildings being converted into homes have also changed. Newer offices between the 1990s and 2010s make up 2% of completed projects but account for 6.4% of future conversions.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association

From 2020 to 2024, new construction added nearly 3.6 million owner-occupied homes, accounting for only 4% of total owner-occupied housing stock as of 2024. Relatively newer homes built between 2010 and 2019 made up around 9% of the stock, while those constructed between 2000 and 2009 constituted 15%. In contrast, around 47% of the owner-occupied homes were built before 1980, including around 34% built before 1970.  The median age of owner-occupied homes climbed to 42 years old in 2024, up from 31 in 2005 according to the latest data from the American Community Survey. The share of relatively newer owner-occupied homes (those built within the past 14 years) has declined greatly, from 18% in 2014 to only 13% in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of older homes that are at least 45 years old has increased significantly, rising from 39% in 2014 to 47% in 2024. This shift further reflects the ever-aging stock of homes in the U.S., highlighting the growing opportunities within the remodeling sector to address the needs of homeowners.  Source: The National Association of Home Builders

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Just a few more weeks. That is the message we have heard from the Administration for several weeks. If we assume this will be the case (give or take a few weeks), then we must ask this follow-up question—how long will it take to recover? We understand that it could take years for the recovery of the physical and psychological damage of war.  And we are not discounting these extremely severe factors. But our focus in this newsletter is upon the economic factors.

On the surface, the economic effects of war are obvious.  We have seen a sharp rise in the price of oil, a concurrent rise in mortgage rates and a drop in the value of the stock market. Additional factors are beneath the surface but are also easy to surmise. The price of oil has the ability to exacerbate the overall inflation rate – including gas, food, plastic and additional commodities. Additional defense spending will escalate government borrowing, which in turn could place additional pressure on interest rates. Higher interest rates have the potential to affect the real estate market.

Will these factors just reverse themselves automatically after the hostilities cease? Not likely. Some factors might rebound quickly, such as confidence in the stock market.  Other factors will take more time such as the calming of inflation. Still additional factors might depend upon the conditions which will prevail after the hostilities cease. For example, will shipping lanes reopen promptly and completely?  It is not just oil which moves through these conduits.  The entirety of these factors will be on the plate as the Federal Reserve meets next week. And because most of these questions cannot presently be answered, most market analysts are expecting the Fed to keep rates steady in a wait and see approach.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to decline in the past week as the conflict negotiations have brought hope for a settlement. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.30% last week from 6.37% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased to 5.65%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.83%, 0.54% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates declined this week to a four-week low of 6.30%. Compared to one year ago when rates were at 6.83%, this is a meaningful improvement for homebuyers during what is typically the busy spring homebuying season.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

How long does it take borrowers to achieve “very good” credit? And how much could borrowers save over the life of their loan? Those questions are the subject of a study released by AD Mortgage. The report from the Florida-based lender combines publicly available data with modeling scenarios to estimate how long it takes to improve credit to a 760 FICO score — Fair Isaac Corp.’s benchmark for “very good” credit, based on tiers used in the myFICO Loan Savings Calculator. In most states, it requires between 18 months and three years to reach a 760 FICO score, the study found. The fastest states to reach 760 on average, based on AD Mortgage’s estimates, are Minnesota, Wisconsin and Vermont at 0.9, 1.1 and 1.15 years, respectively. “This new data underscores just how critical credit education and early financial preparation are for today’s homebuyers,” stated Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of AD Mortgage, in the report. “A difference of 20 or 30 FICO points may seem small, but over the life of a mortgage, it can determine whether a borrower pays an extra $20,000 in unnecessary interest. Our goal with this report is to give lenders, brokers and consumers actionable insight into how credit impacts true buying power.”  According to the report, savings resulting from reaching the higher credit score threshold range from about $9,500 to $46,000 over the life of the loan.  The analysis used the average credit score as reported by Experian in September 2024. Calculations assumed a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 15% downpayment — a national median figure AD Mortgage said was derived from the 2025 National Association of Realtors Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report.  Source: Scotsman Guide

As rising home prices continue to keep conventional buyers on the sidelines, Americans could benefit from returning to a well-trodden path to homeownership: manufactured homes. Manufactured housing now offers one of the most affordable and accessible entry points into the housing market, according to a Realtor.com report. House hunters in February could have picked up a mobile home for $141,450, the median list price. This is down 5.7% YOY and significantly more affordable than the median single-family home price of $410,000. At that price, with a 6% 30-year fixed-rate and 20% down payment, homeownership would only put families back $678 a month. “Mobile homes offer a unique opportunity to build equity with a significantly lower monthly housing payment. For those who prioritize flexibility and lower cost burdens, the current price dip in the mobile home sector provides a compelling window to move from renting to owning,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com. With median rents currently running $1,667, a manufactured home could help a large swath of Americans save money and provide an equity safety net for the future.  Popular in the 1990s, the share of factory-built houses declined in the lead-up to the Great Recession as site-built construction exploded in the early 2000s. They now account for about 10% of new housing, while the approximately 7.2 million occupied pre-fabs in the U.S. make up 5.4% of total lived-in homes.  Source: Realtor.com

The stand-off between aspiring homebuyers and well-positioned homeowners has forced young families into small homes while empty nesters remain in large houses. That’s according to a new Redfin analysis, which found that baby boomers with no children own 28% of three-bedroom or larger homes. That number jumps to 35% for households with three or more adults. Meanwhile, millennials with children own just 16% of big houses. The report notes that the issue might not reflect stingy boomers refusing to move. Many parts of the U.S. don’t have enough small, affordable houses for aging Americans, making downsizing unattractive. “I hear empty nesters say they want to downsize, but it’s hard to find move-in ready, small, one-story homes or condos in their price range—especially since many of them are living in a fully paid-off home,” said Brenda Beiser, a Philadelphia-based Redfin agent. For many boomers, though, there’s simply no reason to make a major life change. With almost 60% having already fully paid off their mortgages, remaining in the neighborhoods they call home, often near friends and family, makes more sense than upending their lives. Most (60%) of older adults surveyed by Pew Research said they would like to stay in their homes and have someone care for them as they age. Inventory is slowly increasing. Existing-home listings were up 2.4% in February, and builders continue to funnel new construction onto the market.  Source: The Mortgage Note

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