It is not often that we name a column Election Day one week after publishing a column called Fed Day, but this is one of those exceptions.  As a matter of fact, we speculated that the election occurring one week after the Federal Reserve meeting might have a slight effect upon the Fed decision.  In other words, the Fed would be more disinclined to raise rates.  Indeed, the Fed did not raise interest rates last week, but we likely will never know if the timing of the election affected their decision.   The next question is whether the Fed is now more likely to raise rates at their next meeting in December. Based upon the last Consumer and Price Indices readings, the answer is yes.  Last week we saw the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index and this reading continued to be elevated. 

What else could affect the Fed’s thinking regarding their next move?  This week we will see the release of the October jobs report and if it is as weak as the September report, that may give the Fed some apprehension towards raising rates.  In addition, we will see another employment report released just before the next meeting of the Fed.  There will also be a revision of last week’s preliminary third quarter measure of economic growth (GDP), which initially came in at a strong 3.4%. In other words, there will be plenty of releases providing a plethora of economic indicators to the Fed before they will make their final rate decision of the year. 

On the geo-political side, it would not be surprising for activity surrounding the Middle East to heat up after election day. While we all hope that this activity will center around peace talks, there is also a chance that hostilities will increase.  While there has been somewhat a pause in our engagement in the conflict, the battles have spread throughout the Middle East and thus the situation remains quite precarious. Will the results of the election change any of these equations? Since it is not a Presidential Election, alterations in these scenarios are not likely to come overnight, even if the leadership in Congress changes hands. We do have one major prediction – the Republicans and Democrats will continue to fight after the elections are over. But perhaps we can have some semblance of partisanship show up in Washington in 2027 because we have plenty of problems to solve.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates eased again this past week as the markets stayed fairly calm, especially considering the Fed was meeting mid-week.  The reaction to the Fed decision to hold rates steady was minimal as it was expected. The Fed statement acknowledged inflation continued to run too hot but indicated they preferred to wait and assess the plethora of data to be released before their next meeting in December. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 7.24% last week from 7.32% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates decreased to 6.60%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.17%, slightly more than 1.0% lower than today.  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Daunted by today’s high housing costs, prospective homebuyers are weighing an alternative option, trendy enough to generate at least a couple of hashtags. About 71% of Americans would consider “co-buying,” the term given to purchasing a home with someone other than a spouse, according to a report from Neighbors Bank. Sixty percent said they would rather buy now and share ownership rather than wait. While a slim 8% percent of those polled said they were open to buying a home with someone they didn’t know but were matched with via an app or platform, most respondents preferred familiar faces. Family garnered the greatest interest, with 44% who would consider buying with a parent, compared with 41% open to co-buying with a sibling and 40% open to co-buying with an unmarried romantic partner. Their openness narrowed after that, with 30% saying they would consider buying with a close friend, 27% with their adult child, and 19% another relative. People were less interested in buying with a coworker or a roommate than with a total stranger; only 7% would consider it. Unsurprisingly, interest in co-buying partners varied across generations and income. Gen Z respondents, the country’s youngest homebuyers with the least time to build savings, were the most open to buying with a friend: 45% compared to 24% of baby boomers, the group least interested in buying with a friend. Still, 41% of those Gen Z respondents considered the potential partnership as weighty a commitment as marriage. They were also the least likely to want a buyout or exit plan, 52% compared to 79% of the survey’s oldest baby boomer buyers.  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau suggests that, regardless of whether you are purchasing with a sibling, friend, or stranger, you “establish a cohabitation agreement that outlines how the property will be divided between you in case of financial disputes down the line.”   Source: Homes.com

Your teens and 20s are traditionally a period of great change, and that’s clearly true for today’s Gen Zers, the oldest of whom was 27 in 2024 — the year LendingTree’s recent report covers. The analysis found that for many Gen Zers, that change included moving across state lines.   There were 44.6 million Gen Z adults in the U.S. in 2024. An estimated 10.7 million of them moved to another state or the District of Columbia that year. That’s slightly more than the 10.4 million millennials ages 28 to 43 who did the same. However, as a share of each age group, the difference is stark: 23.9% of Gen Z adults moved across state lines in 2024, compared with 14.0% of millennials, 7.2% of Gen Xers ages 44 to 59 and 5.2% of baby boomers ages 60 to 78. Interstate migration patterns varied widely by state. Thirty-one states and the District of Columbia had more Gen Zers move in than out. South Carolina led the way. An estimated 60,223 Gen Z adults moved into the Palmetto State, while 37,380 moved out, for a net gain of 22,843. The Golden State had a net loss of 58,109 Gen Z adults in 2024. An estimated 128,718 Gen Zers moved into California, second only to Texas nationally. However, 186,827 Gen Zers moved out, by far the most from any state. The nation’s capital had a net gain of 13,905 Gen Z adults in 2024 due to interstate migration.  Source: LendingTree

AI is making it easier to create picture perfect listings, from replacing skies and removing objects to adding in virtual furniture. As writer Melissa Dittmann Tracey reports, new global research from Coraly, a property portal tech company, found that one in nine primary listing photos on leading U.S. property portals show signs of being altered, and more than 90% of those images carried no visible disclosure on the image or immediately adjacent listing context. As altered listing photos face greater scrutiny from states, real estate organizations and buyers, several companies part of NAR’s REACH program are developing tools to increase transparency around digitally altered property images. Coraly and Restb.ai, for example, have tools that can detect altered or potentially noncompliant images and help MLSs and portals maintain a record of changes and disclosures.  “My rule is simple: Improve the photograph, not the property,” says Fouad Bekkar, founder of Coraly. AI tools can be useful presenting a home in its best light, Bekkar says, but “the line is crossed when an edit changes a reasonable buyer’s understanding of the property’s condition, dimensions, contents, structure, surroundings or view.”  Source: National Association of Realtors

The post November 3, 2026 – It’s Election Day appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

Today the Federal Reserve meets for the first time since their meeting in September and hiked the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by 0.25%. A lot has happened since this last meeting, and a lot is going to happen immediately after the meeting.  Let’s cover the past first.  We had a surprisingly weak September jobs report released the first week in October. We have also had numerous attacks on tankers in the Middle East, keeping tensions and oil prices high during the month of October.  Inflation readings have continued to come in higher than the Fed’s target, but inflation does not seem to be accelerating. Plus, in early October the minutes of the last Fed meeting were released indicating that at least one more rate hike would be appropriate some time before the end of the year. 

What is coming? This is going to be a very busy time for economic data and events. After the Fed meeting this week, we will see the first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter (GDP) and the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation reading – the PCE Price Index. Along with inflation, the pace of economic growth will be a big factor in determining the next Fed move. Then next Tuesday is Election Day.  As we mentioned in the past, the Fed has been reticent to take actions affecting the elections unless urgent action was necessary. Though midterm elections may not have the same type of focus. And just to make things even more interesting, we end next week with the October jobs report. 

Having a Fed meeting, the jobs report and the GDP all within 10 days gives us the trifecta of economic happenings.  Right now, the markets are not necessarily predicting a Fed rate increase during this week’s meeting, but anything could happen. However, there is no doubt that the data releases coming after the meeting will go a long way towards determining whether the Fed will raise rates again this year.  If it does not happen this week, there is only one more Fed meeting this year and that is in early December. We will see another jobs report, additional inflation data and a revision of the GDP numbers before that meeting.  Some sort of resolution of the conflict in the Middle East would also help with some good news for the markets. Ending the year with some good news and no further rate increase from the Fed would be very welcome.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage eased this week, providing some relief for the housing market. They continued to fall after the survey was released on Thursday as the bond markets reacted to weak housing data, stock market jitters and continued tension in the Middle East. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 7.32% last week from 7.40% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates decreased to 6.68%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.19%, more than 1.0% lower than today. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

A dollar buys less of everything than it used to, but its purchasing power has especially declined in the housing market. Since 1984, home prices have grown 441% compared with just 210% for inflation. Clever Real Estate compared four decades of federal home price data with the Consumer Price Index, then ran the same comparison across the 50 most populous U.S. metros over the past 15 years. Home prices in all 50 of the largest U.S. metros have outpaced inflation since 2011, with prices at least tripling in 13 of them. Over the past year, however, the tide has started to turn, with home prices trailing inflation in 27 of the 50 metros.  The median U.S. home sold for $78,200 in 1984 and sells for $423,100 now, an increase of 441%. Inflation over those same four decades rose just 210%. If home prices matched inflation’s 210% increase, the median home would cost $242,309, which is $180,791 less than today’s actual price.  In 1990, the median home cost $123,900. Home prices have since increased 241.5% compared with 146.3% for inflation. If home prices increased only as much as inflation, the median home now would cost $305,193, a gap of $117,907 from today’s actual median price.  In 2000, the median home price was $165,300 and has since increased 156% compared with 87% for inflation. The median home now would cost $309,043 if it kept pace with inflation, a $114,057 gap from today’s actual median. Nationally, inflation rose 47.7% between January 2011 and January 2026. Home prices rose faster than that in all 50 of the largest metros, ranging from 65.5% in Baltimore to 344% in Miami, with a median increase of 151%.  Source: Clever Real Estate

A significant coverage deficiency exists for numerous homeowners, though most remain unaware of this vulnerability, as indicated by insurance professionals, according to a CNBC report. This gap in protection exposes policyholders to considerable financial risk from damage caused by increasingly prevalent and expensive natural disasters, including wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding—thereby jeopardizing their most substantial financial investment, according to industry specialists. Consumers have experienced considerable increases in the expenses associated with maintaining adequate insurance protection in recent years, driven by escalating insurance premium rates. According to industry experts, the following represent some of the most significant insurance coverage deficiencies among consumers include flooding, rebuilding costs and limits on specific items. “A supermajority of homeowners want to fully and adequately insure their homes, are willing to pay for it, and think they have it,” Kenneth Klein, a law professor at California Western School of Law, wrote this year in a Lewis & Clark Law Review article. “But most of them are wrong and are short by a lot.” Approximately 90% of owner-occupied residences throughout the U.S. maintain insurance coverage, according to Klein. Standard homeowners insurance policies establish financial restrictions on coverage through multiple mechanisms—including the exclusion of particular disaster categories or the establishment of maximum reimbursement amounts for specific items or categories of damage. “This data shows that there is a barely hidden nationwide crisis of underinsurance,” Klein wrote. The dynamic “persistently and inevitably robs homeowners of any chance to fully recover what they have lost.”  Source: MP Daily

In 2005, there were about 1.5 million owner-occupied homes in the United States valued at least $1 million. They represented only 2% of all owner-occupied homes. By 2024, that number had increased to about 6.9 million homes, accounting for 8%. In many parts of the country, especially coastal areas, the increase reflects years of home price appreciation. Homes that once sold for a few hundred thousand dollars now exceed the million-dollar mark. For example, in Hawaii about 40% of owner-occupied homes are worth at least $1 million. The share is almost that high in the District of Columbia (31.5%) and California (31.3%). Compare that with most areas in the Midwest and South. In Mississippi, North Dakota, and West Virginia, only about 1% of owner-occupied homes are worth at least $1 million. States such as Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Ohio are all below 2%.  Source: NAR

The post October 27, 2026 – It’s Fed Day appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

Typically, we can answer this question beyond a shadow of a doubt. This year seems to be an exception.  Overall economic growth is measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the economy averaged a 2.35% growth rate for the first half of the year. This amounts to a solid growth rate. Not too hot and certainly not too cold.  But if you look at the individual parts of the economy, another picture emerges. For example, job growth has averaged 68,000 per month thus far this year.  And in ordinary times, this rate of job growth would be considered very sluggish.  But as we have pointed out previously, our present stagnant population growth makes these times anything but ordinary.

Going to another important sector of the economy, real estate is painting a picture of languid growth. Earlier in the year, the real estate market was growing, albeit slowly, as mortgage rates headed toward 6.0%.  However, in the past few months, interest rates have increased markedly, and the real estate market has turned quite stagnant as a result. It should also be pointed out that higher interest rates are likely to affect other sectors of the economy as well, from automobile purchases to general consumer spending. Along with interest rates, higher energy prices can affect leisure and business travel as inflation definitely affects this sector of the economy.

One area which seems to be doing quite well is consumer spending.  Consumer spending is a significant part of the overall economy.  Some of the higher spending is as a result of inflation – consumers spending more to purchase the same products such as gasoline. Tax refunds resulting from last year’s tax bill have also provided a boost in consumer spending.  Generally, as long as consumers are spending, the economy is growing. However, if higher interest rates and higher inflation rates persist, eventually consumer spending will run out of steam. Thus far, the economy has not reached this crossroad. The overall picture? An economy that is growing, but there are some lights flashing yellow.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates leveled off this past week after rising for the past few weeks. The inflation data came in hot, which seems like it would have pushed up rates further, but apparently the recent increases were in anticipation of the concerning inflation news.  The data did increase the chances for a Fed increase at their upcoming October meeting, but the markets are mostly still banking on the next increase coming in December. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates remained at 7.40% last week. In addition, 15-year rates decreased slightly to 6.71%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.27%, more than one percent lower than today.Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Most recent homebuyers say their real estate agent should coordinate the mortgage, title and insurance providers in a purchase, but the transaction still feels like a “hassle” for nearly seven in 10 buyers, according to consumer research released by HomeServices of America.  The national survey shows that the homebuying transaction remains fragmented and frustrating for most consumers, even as buyers overwhelmingly say they want their real estate agent at the center of an integrated team of mortgage, title and insurance professionals. The report, titled The Transaction Experience Buyers Want Now, is based on an original survey of 1,000 U.S. adults ages 25 to 64 who bought and financed a home within the past three years.  Nearly 70% of recent buyers described the homebuying transaction as a “hassle” — 21% said “very much so” and 49% said “somewhat.” Just 4% said it was not a hassle at all. Frustration with the process increases with household income, the study found. When asked about the biggest hassle in their transaction 46% cited uncoordinated service providers — including the real estate agent, mortgage lender, insurance carrier and title/closing company, 26% pointed to searching for a home online, 17% said touring homes and 8% named communicating with their agent. At the same time, most buyers enter the process expecting the agent to play a coordinating role. A combined 69% said they went into their home purchase believing it was their agent’s job to coordinate mortgage, title/closing and home insurance providers — 28% “very much so” and 41% “to a degree.” About one-third did not really expect, or did not at all expect, that level of coordination. Agent recommendations largely landed well with consumers. The survey found that 76% of buyers said their agent recommended a mortgage, title or home insurance provider, 95% of those who received recommendations viewed them as helpful or valuable, including 47% who said “very much so” and only 5% said the recommendations were not helpful.  Source: HousingWire

A damaged roof, flooded kitchen, or house fire can turn your life upside down overnight. But for many homeowners, the next financial emergency begins after the insurance claim is filed. A new analysis from the Consumer Federation of America and Weiss Ratings estimates that home insurers collectively earn an additional $8.8 million in investment income for every day claim payments are delayed. Stretch that delay to one week, and the industry could earn an estimated $61.6 million while homeowners wait for money to repair their properties and rebuild their lives. Home insurance companies dispute the idea that claims are deliberately stalled for profit. But regardless of what causes a delay, the financial consequences for homeowners can pile up quickly.  Homeowners insurance is supposed to provide money when a covered loss happens. Until that check arrives, however, homeowners may have to use emergency savings, borrow money, or charge repairs to a credit card. “When repair costs are put on a high-interest credit card and insurance reimbursement is months away, the financial consequences can get ugly quickly,” says Colin Ram, an insurance attorney and founder of Colin Ram Law in Mount Pleasant, SC. “And the mortgage payment doesn’t pause because the house is unlivable.”  The first move is simple: Stop relying on phone calls alone. “Get it in writing immediately,” Ram says. “After every call with the adjuster, follow up the same day with an email recapping what was said and asking for a written timeline. A phone call by itself proves nothing six months from now.” Keep copies of emails, estimates, receipts, photographs, temporary-housing bills, and every document sent to or received from the insurer. You should also read the claims-handling section of your policy and check your state insurance department’s website for deadlines insurers must follow.  Source: Realtor.com

Homeowners associations are pursuing foreclosure against more homeowners because of unpaid dues, as local communities wrestle with mounting financial pressure, new data shows. It is reported that real estate experts said the aggressive collection tactics are being driven by rising operating costs, shrinking reserve funds, and concerns that unpaid assessments could leave associations unable to cover essential expenses. The real estate analytics firm ATTOM reported that HOA-related foreclosures jumped nearly 40% compared with two years earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal report. ATTOM’s report also found HOA foreclosures are rising faster than overall mortgage foreclosure rates. “HOAs are being forced into more aggressive collections to avoid their own financial collapse,” Brian Fox, co-founder of real estate technology firm Benutech, which tracks HOA delinquency trends and foreclosures, told the Wall Street Journal. Typically, HOAs rely on monthly or annual dues from residents to fund maintenance, repairs, insurance, landscaping and other community services. But some homeowners are struggling with higher living costs and mounting expenses, causing more associations to face a rise in delinquent accounts. Rather than offer extended grace periods, some HOAs are moving delinquent accounts to attorneys more quickly or filing liens against homeowners who fall behind on assessments. The crackdown is widespread, affecting communities ranging from suburban condominium complexes to luxury neighborhoods.  Source: Fox Business

The post October 20, 2026 – Is The Economy Strong? appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

It is mid-month and  we are two weeks away from the next meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The September jobs report has been released as we reported in our last commentary.  This week will feature two inflation reports – the consumer and producer price indices (CPI & PPI). The markets believe that the Fed considers the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) a better gauge of inflation. The August PCE Price Index was released the last week in September and showed inflation to be in line with forecasts but still higher than the Fed’s target.  However, the next PCE release will be two days after the Fed meeting and thus the most recent inflation data will be contained in this week’s releases.

Based upon the rhetoric coming from speeches from several Fed Governors in the past few weeks, the trend seems to be toward another rate increase.  These speeches are interesting to note because the new Chairman of the Fed has been adamant about the Fed providing less forward guidance. Sounds like a disconnect in that regard. There is another factor to consider before the next meeting. The week after Fed meeting there will be a national election.  In the past, the Fed has been reticent to take actions which might affect the elections, though this theory is more applicable within a Presidential election year. Thus, we consider it a much smaller factor as compared to the inflation numbers.

The big factor behind all of this is the specter of the Middle East conflict, or war — as many prefer that term.  The conflict has been quiet from a military standpoint within the past several weeks, however the rhetoric has not. Rhetoric that has ranged from full scale war to coming up with a compromise. In other words, all over the place. There is no doubt that solving this situation would go a long way towards easing inflationary pressures, but from the Fed’s point of view, the inflation caused by the conflict is embedded within our economy and not likely to disappear overnight. By the end of this week, we will see what the latest inflation readings show.  But these readings are not likely to answer all of our questions with regard to the Fed’s thinking two weeks from now.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued their recent climb in the past week, though they eased the day of the release of the Freddie Mac survey. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve indicated that one more rate hike is likely this year, but that meeting took place before the weak September jobs report was released. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 7.40% last week from 7.28% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.73%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.30%, 1.10% lower than today. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Gen Z homebuyers are more willing than other generations to cut back on lifestyle spending to help afford a home, according to research from Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider.  Cotality’s new Consumer Sentiment Report reveals a significant shift in purchasing – primarily driven by affordability concerns.  Cotality found that Gen Z buyers are most willing to cut lifestyle spending at 78% (Millennials are similarly willing at 77%), compared with 69% of Gen X and 50% of Baby Boomers. 74% of Gen Z respondents say they would take a smaller home compared with 64% of Millenials, 57% of Gen X and 43% of Boomers.  “Gen Z buyers have grown up in an environment of elevated housing costs, so they’re entering the market with different expectations,” said Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality.  “They’re more willing to adjust their budgets, reduce discretionary spending, or consider a smaller home if it means achieving homeownership sooner. That flexibility helps explain why they’re the generation most prepared to move forward despite affordability challenges.”  Sixty-five percent of all respondents say they would seek a smaller mortgage to improve affordability and 69% say they have already cut, or plan to cut, discretionary spending – on shopping, travel and eating out – in pursuit of homeownership. “By playing the waiting game, people eliminate one of the primary paths to wealth building and limit their ability to build financial reserves in an economy weighted down by increasing unaffordability,” said Hepp. “At first glance, renting at $2,000 per month looks cheaper than buying with a $300,000 mortgage,” Hepp continued. “But once you account for principal paydown and the federal tax benefit, ownership becomes roughly cost-neutral at a 6.6%. Over 10 years, the lower-rate ownership scenario produces nearly $24,000 in savings relative to renting, even before considering any home-price appreciation.”  Source: Cotality

Seller impersonation fraud has become more widespread and frequent, and criminals are using increasingly sophisticated tactics to carry out these schemes, a new report from the American Land Title Association found. ALTA’s 2026 Seller Impersonation Fraud study found that 59% of firms reported at least one seller impersonation fraud attempt in the prior calendar year, more than double the 28% reported in the association’s 2024 survey. The share reporting at least one attempt in the month prior to the survey also rose sharply, from 19% to 45%, while the share reporting three or more attempts increased from 4% to 23%. Seller impersonation fraud occurs when a criminal impersonates a property owner to illegally sell commercial or residential property. The findings confirm that seller impersonation fraud is becoming more common, more sophisticated and more difficult to detect. “Criminals are investing time and resources to exploit weaknesses in real estate transactions,” ALTA Chief Strategy, Communications & Innovation Officer Elizabeth Blosser said. The research found that bad actors are expanding both their targets and tactics. Vacant land remains the top target, but vacation homes, rental properties, agricultural land and primary residences all increased as targets. Technology is also changing the fraud playbook. 87% of respondents rated spoofed contact information as at least somewhat common, while 58% said the same of deepfake image or voice technology. When schemes succeed, the financial consequences can be substantial. One in four firms reporting an attempt also reported a paid claim related to seller impersonation fraud. Among firms reporting a claim and disclosing average costs, half reported costs above $100,000. ALTA noted that title professionals are strengthening their defenses. 94% of firms reported using multiple tools they consider helpful for detecting seller impersonation fraud, averaging 5.3 fraud-detection tools per firm.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association

Cybercrime within the real estate sector reached unprecedented levels recently, as reported in the 2025 edition of the FBI’s annual IC3 report. The report indicated over 12,000 complaints related to real estate, with total losses amounting to $275 million, an increase from approximately $174 million in 2024 and $145 million in 2023. During the latest Broker Power Hour hosted by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), brokers received valuable advice on how to safeguard themselves against real estate wire fraud attempts, where malicious actors seek to redirect funds from real estate transactions into their own accounts. Tyler Adams, Co-Founder and CEO of CertifID, who spoke at the session, stated that no one is exempt from these threats. He noted that artificial intelligence has transformed the landscape of fraud. “It has empowered fraudsters to carry out attacks on an unprecedented scale,” he said. Adams also stressed the importance of educating clients early in the transaction process about the risks of fraud to mitigate potential losses. New NAR data further revealed what brokers who are members of NAR learned during the complimentary session about enhancing transaction security, recognizing fraud risks, and protecting both their brokerage and clients.  Source: MP Daily

The post October 13, 2026 – Inflation in Focus appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

Like most years, this year has been a very interesting one with many twists and turns from an economic standpoint. We started the year with a lot of optimism regarding interest rates and the real estate market.  In late February 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovered around 6.0%, and America had commenced refinancing their higher fixed rate mortgages.  About that time the conflict with Iran started. It was supposed to last a few weeks, and we would be back to normal.  Instead, the conflict escalated and metamorphosized into a battle over oil routes.  Despite the fact that the military side of the conflict has quieted down, the effect upon prices has persisted and even escalated over time.

This has led to the Federal Reserve raising short-term rates to combat elevated inflation. Not that inflation has escalated significantly considering the sharp rise in energy prices, however inflation is definitely not easing towards the Fed target of 2.0%.  The question the markets are pondering after the Fed made their move:  Is the Fed finished, or are there additional rate increases on the way?  Judging by the unanimous decision to raise rates and the statement issued by the Fed, many are speculating that we could have at least one more rate increase before the end of the year.

The Fed’s assessment of the strength of the economy will help guide this determination and this past Friday the government released the jobs report which gives us an important economic benchmark. In September, the economy added 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.2%.  In addition, the previous two months of gains were revised downward by 60,000 jobs, resulting in a total loss of 31,000 jobs. On the inflation side, wage growth increased 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% annually. Overall, this was seen as a weak report which came on the heels of a strong report the previous month. This gives the Fed less leeway to make additional moves this year.  Their next meeting will come at the end of October.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Another week of mortgage rates rising sharply as they follow government bond rates higher due to stronger economic news. There was some easing after the PCE Inflation Index came in lower than expected. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 7.28% last week from 7.03% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.60%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.34%, 0.94% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: With mortgage rates on their current trajectory, the housing market continues to be supported by favorable economic conditions.  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

House hunters are finding more choices today than they have in many years. Housing inventories climbed 3.2% from July to August and are up about 6% from a year ago, offering a meaningful boost to a market that has long been starved for listings. NAR’s data shows this is the first time since November 2019 that housing inventory nationally has exceeded 1.6 million units. “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply—it’s the highest level in over 10 years,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says. “The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving home buyers better opportunities to negotiate.” The August REALTORS® Confidence Index indicates that the change may be translating into more negotiating power for buyers. Only 16% of homes sold above list price in August, down from 20% a year ago. In addition, more sellers are keeping their homes on the market—choosing not to delist at rates seen last year. The median days on the market in August was 31 days, NAR’s data shows. The perceived opportunity may be gradually drawing more first-time buyers back into the market: The Confidence Index shows their share of existing-home purchases rose to 30% in August, up from 28% a year ago.  Source: The NAR

Keeping the nation’s aging housing stock in sound condition demands growing investment. New analysis of the American Housing Survey (AHS) finds that while spending on improvements and repairs rises as homes age, the capacity to meet that need differs sharply by income. Among owners of homes built before 1960, those in the highest income quintile spent three times as much on improvements and repairs in 2023 as those in the lowest. Though the oldest homes need significant investment, they are disproportionately occupied by owners with the least financial capacity to make repairs. The housing stock is the oldest on record. In 2023, the housing stock reached a median age of 44 years, up from 39 years in 2013, and 28 years in 1993. A prolonged period of underbuilding during the Great Recession meant that far fewer new homes were added to the stock compared to previous decades. In 2023, one in four homeowners (22 million households) lived in a home built before 1960.  The age of a home shapes the composition of home improvement and repair spending. In 2023, home maintenance accounted for 22 percent of total remodeling and repair expenditure on homes built before 1960, compared to just 16 percent of spending on homes built in 2010 or later. Replacement projects such as roofing, siding, windows, insulation, and HVAC are difficult to defer as they are often essential to maintain safe and decent conditions. Taken together, replacements of exterior and interior home components, systems, and equipment accounted for 39 percent of homeowners’ spending on homes built before 1960, far above the 24 percent share for homes built in 2010 or later. Average improvement and repair spending increases considerably as homes age past 20 years and remains elevated as core components and systems cycle through their useful lives. In 2023, owners living in homes built before 1960 spent an average of $6,000 on improvements and maintenance, about 35 percent more than the $4,500 average for homes built in 2010 or later. This pattern holds across income levels, with homeowners at all income levels spending more on average on older homes than newer ones.  Source: The Joint Center For Housing Studies, Harvard University

There are signs that the traditional American mall may be in the early stages of recovery. The enclosed, climate-controlled shopping center has been on the commercial real estate obituary page for more than a decade, thanks to many reasons, including the rise of online shopping, the COVID-19 pandemic and changing retail trends. But recently there have been signs of improving fortunes for the venerable mall. In March, it was reported that Gen Z shoppers, those ages 14 to 29, purchased 62% of their merchandise in malls last year. That was 10% more than shoppers who are 25 or older. This group of shoppers is expected to be responsible for global sales in excess of $12 trillion by 2030.  The Wall Street Journal has reported that the younger generation’s newly found love for malls has resulted in increasing demand for mall space and rising mall values. Real estate analytics firm Green Street estimates that the value of malls has increased by 13% in the past year, topping other commercial property sectors. That growth has attracted more investors eager to find profits in the otherwise sluggish commercial real estate market.  Green Street estimates that seven malls have closed so far this year, which is down from nine closings for all of last year. The number of mall closures has been steadily decreasing since 19 closed their doors in 2021. It is estimated that about 200 malls have closed since the 2008 financial crisis, leaving about 900 still open in the U.S.  Source: Scotsman Guide

The post October 6, 2026 – Where Do We Go From Here? appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

Last week we addressed the issue of inflation and inflation’s influence on interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s policy is to keep inflation at a 2.0% level as elevated inflation has a detrimental effect upon the economy.  Certainly, elevated inflation has a detrimental effect upon every American’s pocketbook. The Fed tries to ease inflation by tightening monetary policy which can mean that they are raising their benchmark interest rate (the Federal Funds Rate) and/or decreasing the supply of money in circulation. These actions are designed to slow the economy at the same time.

Of course, the decision to tighten monetary policy is problematic if the economy is not strong. This is where the Fed’s balancing act comes in because the Fed’s goal is also a healthy economy.  In other words, we don’t want to give the patient too much medicine, which would cause additional or even worse problems.  To add another factor into the equation, there is the possibility that the Fed could raise interest rates as they did a few weeks ago but long-term rates such as rates on mortgages could go down as a result. How is that possible? First, the Fed controls very short-term rates. However, it is also not unusual for rates to rise in anticipation of the Fed’s action, which is exactly what is happening. Federal Funds Rate is the rate that banks charge each other to borrow funds overnight to make sure their balance sheets are “balanced.” That is very short-term.

Long-term rates are affected more by the prospects of inflation, as discussed previously. When the Fed raises their benchmark interest rate, the markets could perceive that the Fed is acting to bring inflation under control, which is a good thing. Therefore, it would not be unusual for the markets to react positively to this Fed action. It is also not unusual for rates to rise in anticipation of the Fed’s action, then easing back somewhat after it happens. Going back to the economy, on Friday we have a report being issued which will give us a good idea if the Fed feels like the economy is strong enough to withstand higher short-term rates. That report is the monthly employment report for September. Last month we had a strong jobs report. Two strong reports in a row could denote the start of a trend after a long period of slow job growth. We expect the markets to watch this report closely in this regard.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to rise sharply in the past week following government bond rates which were moving higher. They continued to rise after the Freddie Mac survey was released. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 7.03% last week from 6.95% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.42%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.30%, 0.73% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: The housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Zillow’s August data show the result: Home sales fell 0.6% from a year earlier, while newly pending listings, a more current sign of buyer activity, fell 2.6%. The pullback follows a brief period of improving conditions earlier this year, when lower rates helped revive activity. Earlier this year, rising mortgage rates began to erode affordability gains even as the housing market showed signs of renewed momentum. That seems like bad news, but for some, it might be an opening. Buyers who can make a move today are encountering conditions that were scarce during the frenzied years: more homes to consider, more time to decide and sellers who are increasingly cutting prices to attract buyers. There were 1.41 million homes for sale nationwide in August, 3% more than a year earlier, and 26.3% of listings carried a price cut. “Affordability is putting the brakes on the for-sale market, but it is also changing the experience for buyers who remain active,” said Mischa Fisher, Zillow chief economist. “Less competition gives well-prepared buyers a better chance to compare options and negotiate with confidence.”  For sellers who are battling for the buyers who can make this market work, everything comes down to preparation. Pricing competitively from the start matters when buyers are taking more time.  Source: Zillow

Clever Real Estate released a report finding that 50% of Americans report living paycheck to paycheck. Seventy-four percent believe they will still be living that way a year from now. However, homeowners report being slightly more satisfied. Two-thirds (68%) of homeowners say they are satisfied with their finances while only 47% of non-homeowners say the same. More than one quarter–27%–of respondents describe themselves as over-spenders, but only 49% of those who describe themselves that way own a home, compared with 62% who don’t overspend. Thirty-nine percent of non-homeowners point to housing costs as impacting their money troubles, compared with 22% of homeowners. They’re also twice as likely to lack an emergency fund, at 61% for non-homeowners compared with 30% of homeowners. Forty-four percent of respondents report having missed a bill because of overspending on nonessentials. Half report having had to delay major life milestones–10% report having put off buying a home, and 19% said they have delayed saving for retirement. The vast majority (88%) of Americans admit to making impulse purchases, with 59% admitting they have knowingly made a purchase they couldn’t afford. And the majority, 68% (and 97% of self-reported over-spenders) have regrets about their spending habits. Source: Clever Real Estate

About one in four Americans is already using self-storage and just as many are actively searching for a unit online currently. Across the 150 largest U.S. cities, self-storage searches rose 23% year-over-year in 2025 — nearly triple the growth recorded the previous year, up from around 8% in 2024. Extra space has evolved from a convenience into an increasingly important part of household planning for a growing share of the population. What’s driving the shift? A housing market that remains challenging, homes that are becoming more compact, and lifestyles that require greater flexibility. Current housing conditions have made moving more difficult for many Americans giving homeowners with lower existing rates a strong incentive to stay put — even when their space no longer fully suits their needs. Buyers entering the market face a different challenge: New construction is delivering less square footage at higher prices, a trend some analysts have called housing shrinkflation.  Gen Z is navigating these pressures from another angle. Homeownership, long regarded as a generational milestone, can feel increasingly distant when saving for a down payment competes with rent, student debt, and everyday living expenses. Whether renting or preparing to buy, many young adults are building full lives in more compact spaces.  Remote and hybrid work have added another layer to the equation. For a growing number of Americans, a home office has become a practical requirement, meaning every corner devoted to work leaves less room for storage and other household needs.  Source: StorageCafe

The post September 29, 2026 – Addressing Rising Rates appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

This is a topic that we have visited before in the past, however with the latest bond market volatility, it is an opportune time to address the subject again with the Fed acting to address the issue this past week.  When you view headlines such as the 30-year bond yields hitting their highest levels in close to 20 years, certainly going deeper is warranted. We start with this question – why are interest rates rising again? There are two main answers to this question. First, there are fears that inflation will continue into the future.  There is a term for this inflationary condition, and it is called embedded inflation.  Embedded means it is becoming a permanent or long-term part of the equation. 

Why is inflation tied to higher interest rates? The simplest example is that inflation causes money to lose value in the future.  If I lend you $100 for one year and the inflation rate is 10%, when you pay me back in one year, that $100 will only pay for $90 worth of goods. Therefore, I must charge an interest rate of 10% in order to break even.  And we will state the obvious here—banks are not in the business to break even, thus the interest rate should be higher than 10%. Obviously, these numbers are fictitious, but they make the point.

The second answer is the fact that government borrowing is soaring. Why is the level of government borrowing an issue?  We have record Federal budget deficits. Actually, mind-blowing deficits. That is what happens when you lower tax revenue and continue to spend. That is very simple math. Here we are talking about supply and demand. If the government sells more bonds to fund the deficits, they will need to promise a higher interest rate to investors if demand is strong enough.  This forces other interest rates higher as well because the government is flooding the markets with supply. These problems are not ours only as inflation and government borrowing is happening around the world.  Though the U.S. has some unique issues such as the aging of our population which is putting additional pressure on the deficits and especially the social security system.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates rose sharply in the past week as the Fed meeting approached. They eased the day after the Fed meeting and after the survey period closed. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.95% last week from 6.76% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.26%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.26%, 0.69% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to fluctuate as markets assess economic data.  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to get more affordable before buying a home, 2027 may not bring much relief. The latest forecasts suggest 30-year fixed mortgage rates could remain closer to 7% next year, keeping borrowing costs high for prospective buyers.  Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association now expect rates to average 6.7% in 2027, a notable jump from recent forecasts. In other words, forecasters who had expected mortgage rates to ease now expect them to remain roughly where they are today. “Most of the recent affordability challenges have come from increased mortgage rates. Home prices have been falling on a year-over-year basis throughout 2026 at the national level,” says Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com. “Behind the scenes though, inflation is the real culprit.” When inflation remains high, investors typically demand higher yields on Treasury bonds, which can keep mortgage rates higher, too. High inflation can also leave buyers with less spending power and make homes more expensive to build. For would-be buyers, that means waiting until 2027 may not make buying a home much cheaper. “Economic reality has forced even the most optimistic interest rate forecasters to project a higher rate environment than anticipated earlier this year,” says Marty Green, a residential mortgage lending attorney at Polunsky Beitel Green. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose 3.7% in July from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, well above the central bank’s 2% annual target. Green points to renewed tariffs and the war in Iran as factors that could keep inflation high and make lower mortgage rates harder to forecast.  Source: CNBC

Renting a starter home remains the cheaper option in every one of the 50 largest US metro areas, but a new report suggests that advantage is quietly eroding. The national median asking rent for properties with up to two bedrooms fell to $1,695 in July. That’s a decline of 1.4% from the same period last year, according to the Realtor.com July 2026 Rent Report. It was the 36th consecutive month of annual rent decreases. Despite that persistent slide, rents remain $225, or 15.3%, above July 2019 levels, a reminder that the pandemic-era price shock has not fully unwound.  The monthly cost of buying a starter home across the same 50 metros averaged $2,553 in July, leaving renting $858 cheaper per month. A year earlier, that gap stood at $923. Starter home listing prices fell faster than rents over the past year. Buying costs dropped $89 in total, $57 of that from lower typical listing prices and $33 from a modest decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which moved from 6.72% in July 2025 to 6.54% last month. “Renters have gained meaningful financial breathing room over the last three years, and that advantage is still real in many major metros,” said Jiayi Xu, senior economist at Realtor.com. “But the savings gap is no longer moving in just one direction. Starter-home prices are falling faster than rents in many places, giving households who are ready to buy a stronger reason to stay engaged with the market.” Source: Mortgage Professional America   Editor’s Note: These comparisons do not take into account economic factors that favor purchasing such as principal reduction and tax advantages

According to the latest Realtor.com New Construction Insights Report, more than two-thirds (67.2%) of views to new-construction listings in the second quarter of 2026 came from shoppers from a different metro area than the home for sale. Realtor.com noted that the share exceeds the 65.4% of views to existing home listings coming from outside the listing metro, underscoring the outsized role of long-distance shoppers in new-home demand. According to the report, the strongest cross-metro interest is concentrated in Southern markets where new construction is often priced at or below the national median. “New construction is increasingly a destination for buyers who are willing to look beyond their current metro in search of more attainable options and a different lifestyle,” said Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com. “The markets drawing the most distant attention are largely in the South, where buyers can often find a newly built home at a price that compares favorably with more expensive nearby and coastal metros.”  Realtor.com noted that the national median listing price for a newly built home was $450,256 in the second quarter, essentially unchanged from a year earlier, down 0.1%.  Source: MP Daily

The post September 22, 2026 – The Inflation Picture appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

The Federal Reserve’s new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has promised changes in their modus operandi under his realm.  Specifically, he has made pulling back on economic forecasting a cornerstone of his tenure. In his highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last month, Warsh explicitly criticized the Fed’s heavy reliance on “forward guidance”—the practice of telegraphing future interest rate paths.  We agree with his assessment that “accuracy in economic forecasting is still just an aspiration.”  After all, many times we have stated within this commentary that predictions of the future are futile.

On the other hand, how many Federal Reserve members have made speeches in the past several weeks, calling for a rate increase based upon their predictions that inflation is not going to get better without some intervention?  While we don’t have an exact count, enough of them have come out on this side of the equation that the markets were predicting a 60% chance of a rate increase around the first of this month. Another prediction of the future. Our point here is not to insert our own prediction of a rate increase, but to point out that the prediction game is not going away under Warsh’s tenure. As a matter of fact, with so many currently playing in the prediction markets, we as a culture are currently getting more invested in predictions, not less.

Two factors could keep the Fed from raising rates this week. First, the feeling that the Middle East conflict is not only going to quiet down, but oil and other commodities are going to start flowing freely again through the Strait of Hormuz. Secondly, evidence that our inflation rate is slowing and the economy is slowing with inflation. Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech indicated that the economy was strong. The most recent quarter’s 1.5% growth rate does not seem that strong to us, and the latest jobs report was evidence that, while unemployment remains low, job growth is still below normal despite a rebound last month. Also, last week’s inflation reports were elevated as expected.  Will the Fed raise rates? We will get our answer tomorrow. 

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates persisted higher in the past week as the conflict in the Middle East continued to flare up and the next meeting of the Fed approached. The 10-year Treasury continued its upward climb, and mortgage rates are following this trend as the markets stayed nervous about inflation expectations in response to oil prices climbing to recent highs. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.76% last week from 6.71% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.09%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.35%, 0.41% lower than today. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

New condominium lending rules from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could make loan approval easier for some borrowers while adding complexity for others says NAR Director of Conventional Housing Finance and Valuation Policy Ken Fears.  Changes include the elimination of a streamlined process for project approvals, waivers available for buildings with 10 or fewer units and increases in homeowners association (HOA) reserve requirements.  With streamlined approvals eliminated, many have expressed concerns about transaction delays. Fears says Fannie Mae’s condo project manager app, introduced in 2025, should lessen the burden for lenders seeking project approvals, because once a building is approved for one loan, subsequent loans will no longer have to go through the full review.  Jodi Horne, Fannie Mae’s director of collateral risk management, says the new changes are aimed at preventing deferred maintenance, special assessment and long-term affordability issues, and she encourages real estate professionals and HOAs to verify condo eligibility to help avoid closing delays. Source: Realtor.com

Following a year characterized by elevated interest rates and sluggish sales, home sellers are finally confronting the reality this summer and becoming pragmatic about home pricing. Now, a year later, instead of opposing the cooling market, sellers have started to recalibrate their expectations and reduce their initial asking prices. Further, in July, the median listing price experienced a decline of 2.4% compared to the previous year. Additionally, less than 40% of the active listings underwent a price reduction, in contrast to 54% of listings in July 2025—indicating that sellers are now pricing homes more competitively from the outset. “Last year, sellers were still pricing for the market they remembered, not the one buyers were actually facing,” said Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com. “This summer, they’ve been more realistic from day one—and more willing to adjust when necessary.”  In addition, the proportion of active inventory categorized as “on sale” or price-reduced decreased in all 50 of the largest metropolitan areas from July 2025 to July 2026. In instances where price reductions are required, sellers are initiating their first cut three to four days earlier than the previous year—averaging 34 days in comparison to 38 days last year—with reductions averaging at least one percentage point smaller across all regions. “That is good news for buyers, who are seeing lower asking prices and more room to negotiate, but it is also good news for sellers: Pricing to today’s demand is helping homes move and keeping more transactions alive in a high-rate environment,” Krimmel said.  Source: MP Daily

Mortgage rates haven’t moved much lately, but some would-be home buyers may be waiting on the sidelines based on misconceptions about mortgage rates, financing and what it really takes to buy a home.   A recent survey of about 1,000 prospective home buyers by Neighbors Bank found that nearly half—45%—believe mortgage rates are higher than they are. Meanwhile, 72% of prospective buyers say they’ve delayed their home search while waiting for rates to improve, putting their plans on hold for an average of 13 months.   Some may be beginning to question that strategy. Forty-one percent of potential home buyers who are waiting say they regret not buying before mortgage rates or home prices climbed further. Another 17% say they would have bought sooner if they could redo the past year.   About half of survey respondents also say rising rents have made it more difficult for them to save for a home. Many would-be buyers say they’ve been holding out for mortgage rates to drop to 5%, a level the market hasn’t seen since 2022, according to the Neighbors Bank survey. But “buyers who understand where rates actually stand may be positioned to move sooner than they thought,” says Ashley Harris, director of homebuyer education at Neighbors Bank. “The most useful move is usually to work with the market as it is.” The rate-perception gap is part of a broader issue Neighbors Bank has identified in its recent surveys around what prospective buyers think they need to qualify for a home.  In a separate survey of about 1,000 middle-income renters, 45% believed they needed a credit score of at least 700 to buy a home. More than half—55%—believed they needed a 20% or larger down payment, while another 29% thought they needed between 10% and 19%. In reality, the median down payment among first-time buyers was 10% last year, according to NAR.  Federal Housing Administration loans, a popular choice among first-time home buyers, can require as little as 3.5% down. Yet, 94% of renters surveyed said they didn’t know a down payment could be as low as 3% to 3.5%. Source: Neighbors Bank

The post September 15, 2026 – The New Fed Is Not So New appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

Over Labor Day weekend the markets were able to ponder the latest employment report. The job sector has been up and down for the past eighteen months and after a dismal report in July, there was hope for an upturn with regard to the August numbers. As it turns out, in August the economy added 162,000 jobs.  In addition, the past two reports were revised upward by 55,000 jobs resulting in a net gain of 217,000 for the month. The headline unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.  Overall, these numbers were seen as a definite rebound from the lackluster July report.

On the inflation side, wage growth increased by 0.3% from July and 3.1% year-over-year.  These numbers are vitally important because it is imperative that the American consumer’s wage growth meets or exceeds the growth in prices that consumers are experiencing.  We are not only talking about everyday gas and other commodity prices, but long-term costs such as housing.  Strong wage growth helps make mortgage and rent payments more affordable in the long run. Of course, strong wage growth can also fuel inflation, which is something that the Federal Reserve is watching very closely.

Speaking of the Fed, they are meeting next week for the first time since their July get together.  The minutes of their July meeting were released in mid-August and there was certainly some inclination towards raising their benchmark interest rates. The August jobs report will likely add to this sentiment.  Despite the concern regarding increasing inflation, we had a fairly benign consumer price index report released last month.  The CPI index for August is due to be released this Friday and will serve as another important reading for the Fed to chew on when they meet next week. Another bit of good inflation news would be a good bit of ammunition to hold the hawks off at this meeting.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued higher in the past week as the conflict in the Middle East flared up and expectations for continued inflation stayed relatively high. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.71% last week from 6.66% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 6.04%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.50%, 0.21% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.71% this week. Purchase demand has remained relatively stable indicating steady interest from buyers adapting to evolving market conditions.  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Despite lagging sales, current homeowners remain in a strong position, continuing to benefit from the home price appreciation of recent years. Earlier this spring, NAR’s data showed that price growth has helped the typical homeowner accumulate about $128,000 in housing wealth over the past six years alone. Housing inventories remain limited in many markets, allowing sellers to retain an advantage in pricing their home while buyers contend with fewer choices this summer. The number of homes for sale in July fell 1.9% compared to June, and inventories are down 0.6% from July 2025’s already low levels. Facing little competition, owners are selling relatively quickly: Nationally, the median time on market in July was 29 days, according to NAR’s latest data. Entering the housing market remains tough for first-time buyers. Without equity from a previous home sale toward a purchase, many are having a hard time competing as higher prices and mortgage rates stretch affordability. First-time buyers comprised 29% of existing home sales in July, down from 33% in June but still up from 28% a year ago, according to the July 2026 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey. Meanwhile, investors, second-home buyers and repeat buyers who can leverage cash from a previous sale are using their buying power: About a quarter of the market in June and July paid cash. Source: NAR

Cash buyers are losing some of the ground they gained during the pandemic housing boom, creating a slightly more favorable market for borrowers relying on mortgage financing. All-cash purchases accounted for 31.4% of home sales during the first four months of 2026, down from 32.3% during the same period last year, according to a new Realtor.com report. The change was modest, but the underlying sales figures showed cash buyers pulling back faster than the market overall. The number of cash transactions fell 11.2% year over year, compared with an 8.5% decline in total home sales. “Cash buyers aren’t disappearing; they’re simply becoming less dominant as the housing market finds its footing,” said Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com. “More inventory and moderating prices are giving financed buyers more opportunities to compete.” The national median sale price rose only 0.2% year over year during the period covered by the report. That was down from 1.8% growth in 2025 and well below the 15.4% increase recorded at the market’s 2021 peak. Slower price growth, improving inventory, and fewer bidding wars may reduce some of the pressure on borrowers who cannot waive financing contingencies or close as quickly as cash purchasers.  Still, a 0.9-percentage-point decline in cash share does not represent a wholesale reversal. Buyers without financing continued to account for nearly one in three transactions nationally, and the prevalence of cash varied widely by market and price range.  Source: National Mortgage Professional

Clean homes with high-end filtration systems for air and water are among the top three most important features sought by home hunters in America. More than one-third (36%) of U.S. house hunters say a “clean” home, one with high-end filtration systems for air, water, etc., is among the top three most-important features in the next place they live. This is based on a Redfin survey conducted by Ipsos. Redfin noted that makes it the most common priority for prospective homebuyers, along with security systems out of a list of 22 features. Redfin said, in fact, that clean homes and security systems outrank every other feature it asked about, by a longshot. Views come in third, with one-quarter (25%) of prospective buyers saying they’re a top priority, followed by smart-home technology (20%). Backup power generation — such as solar panels or generators—round out the top five, with 19% of house hunters ranking it as a top three priority. Redfin noted that climate resilient upgrades or features also are important to prospective buyers, with one in seven (14%) ranking it as one of their top considerations. Features that take health and climate risks into account are ranked higher than luxurious upgrades like home theaters (7%) and outdoor kitchens (10%). The survey wasn’t conducted in response to wildfire and smoke emergencies, but the results underscore a broader trend. Prospective homebuyers are placing a premium on features that help create a healthier indoor environment. For example, high-end air and water filtration systems can help reduce exposure to smoke and other pollutants, while growing interest in climate-resilient upgrades suggests buyers are increasingly looking for homes that can better protect them from the impacts of extreme weather and environmental risks.  Source: MP Daily

The post September 9, 2026 – Labor Day Jobs appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.

This upcoming Labor Day weekend will have a special meaning with regard to the American labor force. Always held on the first Monday in September, this particular Labor Day is on the very last possible day – September 7th.  Why is that important?  Typically, the August jobs report is released after Labor Day.  But this year, Labor Day weekend will feature both the August jobs report on Friday and Labor Day on Monday.  Thus, Labor Day weekend will really have an extra focus on the labor market.  Considering the weak employment report released for July, we will be hoping for a last-minute surge as the summer comes to a close.

Of course, Labor Day weekend is also the unofficial end of summer, even though fall does not start for a few weeks. Kids are back in school and that means that summer vacations are over. Traditionally this weekend represents the start of the fall real estate season as well. The fall real estate season is usually not as strong as the spring market, however in our present economy the direction of interest rates could have as much influence on the real estate market as the calendar. We had an early real estate spring this year because rates eased, but late spring and summer were a bit quieter as mortgage rates reacted to higher energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

The economy has certainly slowed a bit as the year progressed. Last week the estimate of the second quarter’s economic growth was not revised from the original estimate. The 1.5% growth rate by itself is indicative of an economy muddling along, which is not surprising considering the tepid employment sector. In any other time, a slow economy would have brought interest rates down from today’s levels, but elevated energy prices have kept the markets on edge. Theoretically, a slower economy should reduce energy consumption which would counterbalance somewhat the influence of the Middle East conflict.  But markets don’t always react in concert with theory. Regardless of this conundrum, we hope everyone had a great summer and happy Labor Day!

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged this past week.  According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose one tick to 6.66% last week from 6.65% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates increased to 5.98%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.56%, 0.10% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: The economy remains resilient, demonstrated by steady consumer spending and rising household incomes. More homes coming on the market and slower price growth in many areas are giving buyers better options and helping create a more balanced housing market. Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Over half of new single-family homes built in 2025 were two or more stories, according to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. But the share of homes started with two or more stories fell in 2025, reflecting increased building activity in regions that prefer single-story homes. Nationwide, the share of new homes with two or more stories fell from 52.5% in 2024 to 51.4% in 2025, while the share of new homes with one story rose from 47.5% to 48.6%. This share varied significantly across the nation. Two-story homes remain more popular in most areas of the country. But the areas seeing the most new homes built tend to prefer single-story homes. The Northeast and the West had higher shares of two or more stories, while the entire Central time zone saw more single-story homes.  Even in areas that prefer multistory homes, the single-story share is growing. For example, the single-story share in the Pacific has increased in seven of the last eight years, from 32.7% in 2017 to 47.5% in 2025. This could reflect the increased cost to build homes and developers focusing more on moderate and low-cost housing.  Source: National Association of Home Builders

Moving is never easy, but lately, more people are trying to keep the process quick, small, and breezy. In the first four months of 2026, bookings for help with a partial move were up 37% from the same period last year, while short-distance relocations jumped 29%, according to data shared by Taskrabbit. In addition, same-day bookings for moving help jumped 19%. These stats indicate that more people are moving smaller loads faster across fewer miles. In other words, micro-moves are on the rise.  “We’re definitely seeing a shift toward smaller, more frequent moves—people are moving for more immediate opportunities like a new job, a better apartment deal, a roommate situation changing, or simply wanting to try out a new city or neighborhood,” says Nick Friedman, co-founder of College HUNKS Hauling Junk & Moving. “We’re also seeing more people make decisions quickly—instead of planning a move months in advance, some customers are reaching out within days because they have more flexibility and fewer belongings to coordinate.” This tracks with the micro-moving trends Taskrabbit identified, especially, but not solely, in urban centers.  “While cities like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco are seeing strong growth in studio and small-unit moves, we’re seeing even faster growth in smaller, suburban markets, leading short-distance and local move bookings to rise nationally,” says Chris Ager, chief commercial officer at Taskrabbit. “This tells us that the idea of moving lighter and faster is resonating across many geographies, whether that means leaving a city for a suburb, moving between neighborhoods, or simply downsizing within an area.”  Source: Taskrabbit

Carson Austin began to worry after his home had been sitting on the market for a couple of months with barely any interest from potential buyers.  It was early 2025, and he had listed the 4,600-square-foot Georgetown, Texas, property for $1.6 million, which he thought was a competitive price, comparable to other large homes in the area. But mortgage rates were hovering around 7%, keeping buyers out of the market and sales stagnant. So Austin decided to try something a bit unconventional. He offered seller financing — an agreement in which the seller acts as the lender, typically providing the buyer with a short-term home loan. In Austin’s case, he held firm on the home’s sale price but offered a below-market interest rate to entice buyers. As soon as he offered the creative financing option, interest picked up. Within two days, the house was under contract with a buyer who agreed to a 35% down payment and a six-year seller-financed loan with a 4% interest rate. Seller or owner financing gained popularity in the 1970s and 1980s, when interest rates were sky-high, but it developed a bad reputation for lacking sufficient protections, particularly for low-income buyers. However, as mortgage rates have soared since 2022, the creative financing strategy has regained popularity, despite remaining a niche offering. The practice is increasingly common in higher-end home sales, according to Realtor.com. Sales involving seller financing grew by 8% in dollar volume to more than $30 billion between 2023 and 2024, according to Note Investor. ” Seller financing often appeals to buyers who want a below-market interest rate or who are struggling to qualify for a traditional mortgage. The so-called bridge loan from the seller, typically lasting about three years, provides the buyer with time to wait for rates to come down and find a traditional mortgage. Meanwhile, sellers can get an edge in the market and benefit from earning interest on the loan.  “At its best, seller financing creates genuine win-wins,” said Ryan Leahy, who founded MORE Seller Financing. But the practice can be financially and legally risky without the right protections. Leahy said that seller financing can have “lots of pitfalls and risk if it’s not done right.” Source: Business Insider

The post September 1, 2026 – Labor Day Weekend appeared first on Starwest Mortgage Corporation.