March 10, 2026 – Focus Upon Job Growth, Tariffs & Now War

Economic Commentary

The February employment report was released on Friday of last week. For the month of February, the economy lost 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% the previous month. The previous two months of job gains were revised downward by 69,000 jobs.  Following a solid month of jobs gains in January and a weak year of gains in 2025, this report can be seen as significantly disappointing, especially considering the adjustments made to the previous two reports. 

In addition to the headline numbers, wage growth was 0.4% higher month-over-month and 3.8% higher on an annual basis.  This data was in line with the previous month. Obviously, inflation continues to be a concern and wage growth is an important factor within the overall inflation picture. In the last month we saw an encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, but also a concerning release of the Personal Consumer Expenditures Index (PCE) – which tells us that the news on inflation continues to be mixed at best. We won’t have to wait long for the next reading of the CPI, as it is scheduled to be released this week along with a delayed PCE index for January. 

Moving from employment growth and inflation, the topic of tariffs is back in the news in the wake of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling.  Though the ruling was cheered by those who are not a fan of tariffs, initial reports are that tariffs are not going away as the Administration is intent on using different avenues for implementation.  And no sooner did the markets digest the tariff situation, the conflict with Iran moved to the forefront of world news.  While previous strikes in Iran were limited, this time around the size of the conflict was sure to cause more significant market reactions. In addition, while we can’t be sure of the timing, it looks to be a major factor which will be with us for some time.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. In the past week, average mortgage rates held at their lowest levels of the past three-plus years. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose slightly to 6.00% last week from 5.98% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased slightly 5.43%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.63%, 0.63% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates held steady at 6% this week, hovering near their lowest level since 2022. In fact, rates are down nearly a full percentage point from this time in 2024, spurring activity from buyers, sellers and owners. As a result, refinance activity is up, and purchase applications are ahead of last year’s pace.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Coming up with a home down payment is often the biggest obstacle buyers face when purchasing a home. It can take years to save, putting potential buyers’ homeownership aspirations farther out of reach. Down payment assistance (DPA) programs can help fill the void, but many buyers don’t know these programs exist or how to use them. According to Down Payment Resource’s (DPR) Homeownership Program Index, there were 2,619 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 6% over a year ago, with an average benefit of $18,000 per borrower.  As of December, the national median existing home sales price was $405,400, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains near 6%, leaving many buyers struggling to come up with ample cash for a down payment and closing costs. Depending on the home loan you choose, you might have to come up with 3% to 5% of a home’s purchase price for a down payment, and an additional 2% to 6% of the loan amount in closing costs.  “Affordability will remain the defining challenge for homebuyers in 2026, and down payment programs are one of the most practical tools lenders have to address it,” said DPR Founder and CEO Rob Chrane. “When DPA lowers loan-to-value ratios and helps cover upfront costs, it doesn’t just improve borrower eligibility; it improves loan quality.”  Recognizing the bind many homebuyers are in, DPA programs are growing — and offering more flexibility in their guidelines. This includes higher income limits, expanded programs for repeat and military buyers and more options for manufactured homes and multifamily properties. Down payment assistance programs help buyers cover upfront costs, including the down payment and (in some cases) closing costs. The assistance typically falls into two categories: forgivable grants or repayable second mortgages. Forgivable grants don’t require repayment if you meet certain conditions, such as living in the home for a certain period of time as your primary residence.  Repayable assistance, on the other hand, usually involves a second mortgage, which comes in second lienholder status behind your primary mortgage.  Down payment assistance programs are operated by state, county and local public housing agencies, as well as nonprofits.  Source: Quartz

Hispanics had a record year for both homeownership and household formation in 2025, according to key findings from the soon to be released 2025 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report by the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP). While the overall homeownership rate declined slightly in 2025 across nearly all demographic groups for the second consecutive year, NAHREP noted that Hispanics had a record year for both homeownership and household formation, adding 441,000 net new homeowners and 1,094,000 overall households. Latinos accounted for 139.6% of total U.S. homeownership growth and 92.6% of household formation growth nationally, the findings show. The U.S. homeownership rate ended 2025 at 65.7%, flat from 2024’s year-end mark, according to Census Bureau data. Without the strength of Hispanic homebuyers, that rate would have declined, NAHREP observes.  “Hispanics had a record year for both homeownership and household formation, while the broader U.S. housing market continues to struggle with affordability challenges,” stated Gary Acosta, NAHREP’s co-founder and CEO, in a press release. “Latinos are driving demand and strengthening communities, while tight inventory, interest rates and higher home prices are keeping many qualified families on the sidelines.”  Source: Scotsman Guide

More than three in five borrowers say they completely understand how a mortgage escrow account works. But confusion remains around how escrow can affect the monthly total payment, according to LERETA.  “Rising property taxes and insurance premiums continue to reshape what homeowners experience month to month, and escrow is often where that impact shows up first,” LERETA CEO Katie Brewer said. “This year’s survey reinforces that many borrowers feel confident in their understanding of escrow, yet misconceptions still persist and that gap can lead to real frustration when payments change.” LERETA’s third annual escrow survey found that 39% of borrowers mistakenly believe their total monthly mortgage payment cannot change if they have a fixed-rate mortgage and an escrow account, up from 36% last year. Nearly all borrowers (93%) believe escrow includes funds to pay property taxes, up from 91% last year. Borrowers are less consistent on insurance, although more than four in five (85%) believe escrow includes funds to pay homeowners and or flood insurance. Even as awareness improves in some areas, payment changes still catch borrowers off guard, the LERETA report said. Among borrowers who experienced a payment increase, three in five (60%) said they were surprised, up from just over half who said that a year ago. Property taxes remain the most frequently cited driver of payment increases, rising from 57% last year to nearly two-thirds (62%) this year. Insurance-related impacts also increased, with nearly half citing higher homeowners insurance premiums and about one in five (21%) citing higher flood insurance premiums. The report noted that more than two-thirds of borrowers (70%) say their mortgage company has communicated how rising property taxes and or insurance costs could change their monthly payment, up from 56% who said this last year. Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association