Economic Commentary For months we have been debating whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates one more time this year and more specifically when they meet next week. We analyze the data, listen to the speeches by members of the Fed and then prognosticate to our hearts content. Then something happens which reminds us that predictions are futile. In this...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary We always say that predicting the future is futile. This year is no exception. The analysts were expecting a recession sometime this year. It did not happen. They also expected interest rates to start easing down as the year went on. Instead, as the second half of the year began, interest rates started rising again. By mid-August mortgage...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary Is it Fall Already? If Memorial Day weekend is the conceptual start of summer even though it is almost a month earlier than the official start of summer, then Labor Day weekend is the similar conceptual start of the fall season. Vacation season is over, and the kids are going back to school. Speaking of vacations, did it...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary The Great Wealth Transfer is Underway. According to TheStreet.com, the Baby Boomer generation owns about half of the nation’s $140 trillion in wealth. These numbers have escalated significantly over the past decade because of gains in the stock market and the appreciation of real estate. According to market research firm Cerulli and Associates, recipients of the great wealth...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary The Great Disappearing Recession. For about a year now we have been talking about the predominant forecast of market analysts which projected a recession as early as the second quarter of this year. And for a year we have been stating emphatically that it is tough to have a recession when the job market is hot. Well, the...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary The Real Estate Picture. What a strange real estate market. To our knowledge, never in our history have we had a situation in which the real estate market has slowed down only because there are not enough homes for sale. Typically, a slowdown in the real estate market is caused by a lack of demand; however, today we...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary The Employment Picture Clouds a Bit. The Federal Reserve and every market analyst have been waiting for the job market to cool down a bit so that one of the last bastions of inflation could fall. The June employment picture was a bit cloudier for the first time this year. Though the headline job data again was just...” Read MorePosted by starwest
Economic Commentary So Begins The Dog Days of August. Every year we seem to publish the “Dog Days of August” edition. And there is always new fodder for the edition. Certainly, August a few years ago was unique because we were in the height of the pandemic. This year, the battle between good and evil is taking place within our...” Read MorePosted by starwest
July 25, 2023 – After a pause last month, would anyone be surprised if the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by .25% again tomorrow?
Economic Commentary Would Anyone Be Surprised? After a pause last month, would anyone be surprised if the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by .25% again tomorrow? Not after hearing statements by Chairman Powell during the past month. As a matter of fact, he indicated that two increases in a row were on the table – though the Fed does not...” Read MorePosted by starwest
July 18, 2023 – For the first time in approximately 3.5 years, we are now guessing whether the Fed will act to raise interest rates.
Economic Commentary Let the Guessing Games Begin. For two years from the inception of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve kept short-term interest rates close to zero. Then as the pandemic waned and the economy bounced back, the Fed went on an inflation fighting campaign and they raised rates at ten straight meetings over a 15-month period. At the last meeting...” Read MorePosted by starwest