April 14, 2026 – Is The Damage Done?

Economic Commentary

There is no doubt that the war with Iran has caused damage to the economy.  Higher mortgage rates and oil prices coupled with a falling stock market and waning consumer confidence represent a lousy combination. In addition, the government is now accelerating spending which is going to have a negative effect on the federal budget deficit in the long term. The good news is that many of these factors are temporary. There is a chance that as soon as the conflict is resolved, we may very well see a fairly rapid recovery within many of these segments of the economy.

The fragile ceasefire which started last week gave us an indication of the markets’ potential resiliency.  Of course, the longer the conflict goes on, the longer the recovery is likely to take. Thus, we are all rooting for a conflict with a quick resolution. But at this point we can no longer label the timeframe as extremely brief.  On the other hand, the timeframe is not yet considered protracted by any means. There is a big difference between a few months and years of fighting. If you look at the market’s reaction to the Ukraine war, there was a recovery which took place over time as the markets adjusted to the fact that the war was not spreading to other countries, even though it has continued for years.

Regarding the real estate sector, initially we have not seen major negative implications. Certainly, higher interest rates are not ever welcome within the sector. But when rates rise initially, this factor often tends to attract prospects that were waiting for mortgage rates to fall. The longer interest rates stay elevated, the more likely the market will be affected adversely. Obviously, the refinance spigot tends to turn off more quickly, which we have already seen. The purchase side of the market is one sector which has the potential to rebound quickly if mortgage rates come back down as the conflict abates. Let’s hope for a quicker resolution and a return to falling rates.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates eased a bit for the first time in several weeks as hope grew for a resolution with Iran. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.37% last week from 6.46% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased to 5.74%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.62%, 0.25% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates ticked down this week, averaging 6.37%. The decrease in rates represents a positive development for prospective homebuyers and could spark a more favorable spring homebuying season than last year.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is expected to gradually slow through 2026, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. The Joint Center’s latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity report projects that year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending will be 2.9% in early 2026 before easing to 1.6% growth by the end of the year. “Single-family home sales and permitting activity have picked up modestly from very low levels, which should support a nominal increase in remodeling activity this year,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Joint Center’s Remodeling Futures Program. “Even with some deceleration later in the year, overall annual homeowner spending on improvements is expected to reach $522 billion by the end of 2026.”  Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center, noted that remodeling trends closely track the health of the broader housing market. “If interest rates begin to ease, that could provide a much-needed boost to both housing construction and retail sales of building materials, which for now continue to pose significant headwinds to homeowner improvement spending,” he said.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association

According to data from First American presents a complex but positive picture of women and homeownership. Over 20 million single women held homes in 2025, the most ever. However, the percentage of single women who own a home decreased somewhat from 51.9% to 50.9%. That slight decrease could initially seem to indicate a setback. However, a closer examination indicates something different: more single women became homeowners despite a difficult affordability situation.  Knowing what the homeownership rate measures is crucial. It shows the percentage of households that are homeowners. The overall number of single-woman families climbed even more quickly than the number of single women homeowners, which rose somewhat from the previous year. The rate decreased as a result of women’s household formation outpacing ownership expansion. Top four reasons women purchase properties: Desire to own home of own: 27%, Desire to be close to friends/family: 17%, Change in family situation: 12%, Retirement: 5%. One other possible explanation for why single women do better than single men when buying homes could be the occupants. Single women are slightly more likely to buy a multigenerational house and are more likely to have children under the age of 18.  Source: First American

The oldest homeowner demographic age 70 and above controlled 26% of the roughly $48 trillion in total U.S. real estate wealth as of the third quarter of 2025, according to a Redfin analysis of the most recent Federal Reserve data. That represents more than 15 years of consistent growth from around 16.5% in the first quarter of 2008.  The ascent of the 70-plus demographic has roughly matched the pace of 40- to 54-year-olds’ declining share of total real estate wealth, which is down from 35.1% at the start of 2008 to 26% in the third quarter of 2025. People in the U.S. under 40 saw their share shrink from 16% to 12.6%, the listings platform says. The findings underscore that while current homeowners continue to enjoy record levels of housing wealth, the overall concentration of wealth has shifted dramatically to favor older homeowners over the past 15 years. While the 70-plus and 40-to-54 age groups each had 26% share in the third quarter, the oldest homeowners surpassed the prime earning-age homeowners’ share of real estate wealth for the first time since the Federal Reserve started tracking the figures in 1989. Pressing affordability challenges have disproportionately favored current and older homeowners with access to equity from home sales, who can more readily afford to repurchase in today’s high-priced marketplace. The National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association reported at the start of  the year that homeowners age 62 and older have seen their home equity rise from about $4 trillion in 2006 to around $7.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. That figure doubled to around $14.6 trillion as of the third quarter of last year.  Source: NRMLA