April 28, 2026 – It is Fed Time Again

Economic Commentary

If you are a member of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee, you can surely understand that things never seem to go as planned.  Certainly, the pandemic was not expected — and neither was the sharp rise in worldwide inflation which accompanied the recovery from the pandemic. As that was happening the war in Ukraine took center stage. While the inflation rate was recovering from all this, we got hit with another great unknown – the implementation of tariffs which had the potential to temporarily reignite inflation.

And just as we were finding out how tariffs were going to affect inflation, they were struck down by the Supreme Court and implemented in through another avenue which remains in question.  Enough curves for you in just six short years?  Just to make sure that there was enough twist and turns we get hit with an all-out conflict in Iran over several weeks. This was followed by a cease fire, and peace talks which wound up being extended. Regardless of the result of these talks, the conflict had an immediate and severe impact on the price of oil, thus igniting our inflation stats for the month of March.

Today the Fed meets with this concern to consider — is the spike in oil a temporary phenomenon which will dissipate immediately after the conflict, or will increased inflation seep through the economy as the price of other goods rise?  Some analysts are concerned that the Fed will consider increasing rates as a result of these fears. Maybe not today, but sometime in the future.  To further complicate things, the economy is likely to slow down as higher gas prices have the potential to depress consumer spending. On the other hand, increased defense spending is likely to provide a boost to the economy in the long run. There is one thing for sure, we would not want to be a member of the Fed in this environment as they face very precarious concerns without appropriate “fiscal” solutions.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued their recovery from their spike upwards following the start of the Iran conflict. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.23% last week from 6.30% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased to 5.58%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.81%, 0.58% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined again this week. Rates currently stand at their lowest level in the last three spring homebuying seasons. This improvement, coupled with a pickup in purchase applications and refinance activity, as well as an increase in monthly pending home sales, underscores signs of improving momentum in the market.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

The latest housing data tell a nuanced but encouraging story about women and homeownership. In 2025, more than 20 million single women owned homes — the highest number on record. Yet the homeownership rate among single women edged down from 51.9 percent to 50.9 percent. At first glance, that modest decline may appear to signal a setback. A closer look reveals something different: even in a challenging affordability environment, more single women became homeowners. The key is understanding what the homeownership rate measures. It reflects the share of households that own their home. While the number of single women homeowners increased modestly from last year, the total number of single-woman households grew even faster. Household formation among women outpaced ownership growth, resulting in a dip in the rate. In other words, the rate softened not because fewer women owned homes, but because more women formed independent households. The continued growth in single, female-headed homeowner households reflects broader demographic and economic shifts that have been building for years. Women have increasingly pursued higher education, and higher educational attainment is closely linked to stronger earnings potential and greater likelihood of homeownership. The share of single women with a bachelor’s degree or higher has risen from 20 percent in 2000 to 35 percent in 2025, expanding the pool of financially prepared buyers. Income growth has reinforced that trend. Real median household income among single women has increased from $42,000 in 2000 to $51,000 in 2025 (in 2025 dollars), improving purchasing power over time. While affordability remains strained relative to historical norms, these structural gains in education and income provide a durable foundation for homeownership.  Survey findings help explain why women continue to pursue homeownership in greater numbers. According to a recent National Association of Realtors study, single women remain a growing and influential segment of the home-buying population. They account for a larger share of purchases than single men and cite stability as a key motivation.  Source: First American

RentCafe has identified 90,300 apartment units in the process of conversion from offices. That’s up 28% from a year earlier, setting another record. It’s also nearly four times more than in 2022. Office conversions account for almost half of all future adaptive reuse projects nationwide, at 47%. That’s up from 42% last year. There are 193,900 planned projects in the pipeline. Of the remaining projects, 18% are from hotels, 16% are from industrial properties, and healthcare facilities, schools, retail and government buildings make up 19%. “COVID-19 is to the office market what e-commerce was to retail. As a result, there is simply too much office space in the market right now,” observed Peter Kolaczynski, director of Yardi Research (RentCafe’s parent company). In early 2025, the national office vacancy rate was around 20% and the physical occupancy in many buildings was around 50-55%. And, one-third of U.S. office loans are set to mature by 2027, so owners are under pressure to figure out how to deal with underperforming properties. “A massive amount of office building loans–over $213 billion–are coming due by the end of 2026. When loans mature, borrowers need to either pay them off or refinance them. The problem is that many of these office buildings have lost significant value largely due to remote work trends reducing demand,” said Doug Ressler, senior analyst and manager of business intelligence for Yardi Matrix. However, many office-to-apartment conversions take a few years to complete, slowed by structural constraints, construction costs, financing issues and regulatory requirements.  The types of office buildings being converted into homes have also changed. Newer offices between the 1990s and 2010s make up 2% of completed projects but account for 6.4% of future conversions.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association

From 2020 to 2024, new construction added nearly 3.6 million owner-occupied homes, accounting for only 4% of total owner-occupied housing stock as of 2024. Relatively newer homes built between 2010 and 2019 made up around 9% of the stock, while those constructed between 2000 and 2009 constituted 15%. In contrast, around 47% of the owner-occupied homes were built before 1980, including around 34% built before 1970.  The median age of owner-occupied homes climbed to 42 years old in 2024, up from 31 in 2005 according to the latest data from the American Community Survey. The share of relatively newer owner-occupied homes (those built within the past 14 years) has declined greatly, from 18% in 2014 to only 13% in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of older homes that are at least 45 years old has increased significantly, rising from 39% in 2014 to 47% in 2024. This shift further reflects the ever-aging stock of homes in the U.S., highlighting the growing opportunities within the remodeling sector to address the needs of homeowners.  Source: The National Association of Home Builders