April 21, 2026 – Recovery Timeline

Economic Commentary

Just a few more weeks. That is the message we have heard from the Administration for several weeks. If we assume this will be the case (give or take a few weeks), then we must ask this follow-up question—how long will it take to recover? We understand that it could take years for the recovery of the physical and psychological damage of war.  And we are not discounting these extremely severe factors. But our focus in this newsletter is upon the economic factors.

On the surface, the economic effects of war are obvious.  We have seen a sharp rise in the price of oil, a concurrent rise in mortgage rates and a drop in the value of the stock market. Additional factors are beneath the surface but are also easy to surmise. The price of oil has the ability to exacerbate the overall inflation rate – including gas, food, plastic and additional commodities. Additional defense spending will escalate government borrowing, which in turn could place additional pressure on interest rates. Higher interest rates have the potential to affect the real estate market.

Will these factors just reverse themselves automatically after the hostilities cease? Not likely. Some factors might rebound quickly, such as confidence in the stock market.  Other factors will take more time such as the calming of inflation. Still additional factors might depend upon the conditions which will prevail after the hostilities cease. For example, will shipping lanes reopen promptly and completely?  It is not just oil which moves through these conduits.  The entirety of these factors will be on the plate as the Federal Reserve meets next week. And because most of these questions cannot presently be answered, most market analysts are expecting the Fed to keep rates steady in a wait and see approach.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to decline in the past week as the conflict negotiations have brought hope for a settlement. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.30% last week from 6.37% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans decreased to 5.65%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.83%, 0.54% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates declined this week to a four-week low of 6.30%. Compared to one year ago when rates were at 6.83%, this is a meaningful improvement for homebuyers during what is typically the busy spring homebuying season.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

How long does it take borrowers to achieve “very good” credit? And how much could borrowers save over the life of their loan? Those questions are the subject of a study released by AD Mortgage. The report from the Florida-based lender combines publicly available data with modeling scenarios to estimate how long it takes to improve credit to a 760 FICO score — Fair Isaac Corp.’s benchmark for “very good” credit, based on tiers used in the myFICO Loan Savings Calculator. In most states, it requires between 18 months and three years to reach a 760 FICO score, the study found. The fastest states to reach 760 on average, based on AD Mortgage’s estimates, are Minnesota, Wisconsin and Vermont at 0.9, 1.1 and 1.15 years, respectively. “This new data underscores just how critical credit education and early financial preparation are for today’s homebuyers,” stated Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of AD Mortgage, in the report. “A difference of 20 or 30 FICO points may seem small, but over the life of a mortgage, it can determine whether a borrower pays an extra $20,000 in unnecessary interest. Our goal with this report is to give lenders, brokers and consumers actionable insight into how credit impacts true buying power.”  According to the report, savings resulting from reaching the higher credit score threshold range from about $9,500 to $46,000 over the life of the loan.  The analysis used the average credit score as reported by Experian in September 2024. Calculations assumed a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 15% downpayment — a national median figure AD Mortgage said was derived from the 2025 National Association of Realtors Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report.  Source: Scotsman Guide

As rising home prices continue to keep conventional buyers on the sidelines, Americans could benefit from returning to a well-trodden path to homeownership: manufactured homes. Manufactured housing now offers one of the most affordable and accessible entry points into the housing market, according to a Realtor.com report. House hunters in February could have picked up a mobile home for $141,450, the median list price. This is down 5.7% YOY and significantly more affordable than the median single-family home price of $410,000. At that price, with a 6% 30-year fixed-rate and 20% down payment, homeownership would only put families back $678 a month. “Mobile homes offer a unique opportunity to build equity with a significantly lower monthly housing payment. For those who prioritize flexibility and lower cost burdens, the current price dip in the mobile home sector provides a compelling window to move from renting to owning,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com. With median rents currently running $1,667, a manufactured home could help a large swath of Americans save money and provide an equity safety net for the future.  Popular in the 1990s, the share of factory-built houses declined in the lead-up to the Great Recession as site-built construction exploded in the early 2000s. They now account for about 10% of new housing, while the approximately 7.2 million occupied pre-fabs in the U.S. make up 5.4% of total lived-in homes.  Source: Realtor.com

The stand-off between aspiring homebuyers and well-positioned homeowners has forced young families into small homes while empty nesters remain in large houses. That’s according to a new Redfin analysis, which found that baby boomers with no children own 28% of three-bedroom or larger homes. That number jumps to 35% for households with three or more adults. Meanwhile, millennials with children own just 16% of big houses. The report notes that the issue might not reflect stingy boomers refusing to move. Many parts of the U.S. don’t have enough small, affordable houses for aging Americans, making downsizing unattractive. “I hear empty nesters say they want to downsize, but it’s hard to find move-in ready, small, one-story homes or condos in their price range—especially since many of them are living in a fully paid-off home,” said Brenda Beiser, a Philadelphia-based Redfin agent. For many boomers, though, there’s simply no reason to make a major life change. With almost 60% having already fully paid off their mortgages, remaining in the neighborhoods they call home, often near friends and family, makes more sense than upending their lives. Most (60%) of older adults surveyed by Pew Research said they would like to stay in their homes and have someone care for them as they age. Inventory is slowly increasing. Existing-home listings were up 2.4% in February, and builders continue to funnel new construction onto the market.  Source: The Mortgage Note