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1818 E. Southern Ave, Suite 15C
Mesa, AZ 85204
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NMLS 164496 Arizona MB
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November 21, 2023 – Happy Thanksgiving

Economic Commentary This week we will celebrate Thanksgiving. As is tradition, we will count the ways in which we should be thankful – no matter how challenging the year has been! From a personal perspective, we hope that you all have had a great year. From a business perspective, it is probably easier this year to count the challenges. To...” Read More

Posted by starwest

November 14, 2023 – The Mortgage Rate Questions & Microunits

Economic Commentary We will ask three mortgage questions this week. First, why are mortgage rates so high? We know why interest rates are high—the Federal Reserve has increased short-term rates to deal with stubborn inflation. But mortgage rates have risen far more than the rates on Treasuries. One reason? In addition to the Fed raising rates, they have also stopped...” Read More

Posted by starwest

November 7, 2023 – Key Indicator – The Jobs Machine

Economic Commentary Well, it is settled. There will not be a recession in 2023 despite the fact that just about every market analyst was predicting one to start this year. This does not mean that a recession won’t hit in 2024. As a matter of fact, we are convinced that a recession is more likely now that more analysts are...” Read More

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October 31, 2023 – Wars are Increasing Inflation Rates

Economic Commentary For months the Fed has been waging a robust war against inflation. But as we know, this is not the only war being fought. There are wars against drug addiction, poverty and even illegal immigration. And of course, the classic definition of wars being fought in Ukraine and now Israel against terrorists within the Gaza strip. Though these...” Read More

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October 17, 2023 – Bear Markets

Economic Commentary Bonds are in a significant bear market. A bear market in bonds is different than the typical bear market we discuss – which is the stock market. While both are characterized by a drop in prices (for stocks it is typically 20%) – a bear market in stocks is typically accompanied by a declining economy and a bear...” Read More

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October 10, 2023 – One More Rate Increase?

Economic Commentary Back to the topic of higher rates for longer, as the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee keep delivering a central message to the public at large through their statements. The message is that rates are not high enough to bring inflation down to where they would like. While they also say that they are willing...” Read More

Posted by starwest

October 3, 2023 – What is a Soft Landing?

Economic Commentary What is a Soft Landing? The vast majority of analysts forecasted a recession in the second half of 2023. We are now more than half-way through the second half and there are no signs of a recession, except in the housing sector. However, the economy continues to slow down from the solid growth of the first half of...” Read More

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September 26, 2023 – Three Quarters of the Way Home

Economic Commentary Three Quarters of the Way Home. We are almost through three-quarters of the year. And if we had a word to describe this year, it would be persistence. As a matter of fact, persistence could describe the past 15 years. Yes, it has been 15 years since the Great Recession. And the effects of the Great Recession persisted...” Read More

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September 19, 2023 – The Fed Is Costing the Feds Money

Economic Commentary The Fed Is Costing the Feds Money. We had a pretty sharp upturn in rates in August. Since then, interest rates have remained elevated. It was a bit unexpected because most market analysts were predicting rates to ease a bit in the second half of the year. This was not the way to start out the second half...” Read More

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September 12, 2023 – Just When You Thought It Was Safe

Economic Commentary We always say that predicting the future is futile. This year is no exception. The analysts were expecting a recession sometime this year. It did not happen. They also expected interest rates to start easing down as the year went on. Instead, as the second half of the year began, interest rates started rising again. By mid-August mortgage...” Read More

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