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August 26, 2025 – The Threat of Stagflation

Economic Commentary Judging by the jobs numbers for the past three months, the markets are calling for a rate decrease by the Federal Reserve at their next meeting in the middle of next month. Certainly, long-term rates have been falling as a reaction to the weakening job situation and in anticipation of the Fed’s next move. When the economy adds...” Read More

Posted by starwest

August 20, 2025 – Shooting The Messenger

Economic Commentary One week after discussing the importance of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve’s tenuous position, the economy received somewhat of an “aftershock.” Rarely do we use the word aftershock when discussing the economy. It is quite often that we are subjected to economic shocks, many of which are surprises such as natural disasters, pandemics and more. But aftershocks...” Read More

Posted by starwest

August 12, 2025 – Does It Matter?

Economic Commentary This week the markets are still digesting the plethora of economic events which occurred during the last week of July and August first. However, there is no time to catch our breath as a new month of data starts this week with readings on inflation. We have had some good inflation readings during the first part of the...” Read More

Posted by starwest

August 5, 2025 – The Fed Speaks, The Economy Awakens

Economic Commentary The economic trifecta has come and gone. Though the markets are likely to continue to react to the news, we are here to report the results of our three big economic events. First the government released the initial measure of economic growth for the second quarter of the year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have...” Read More

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July 29, 2025 – The Trifecta Hits as the Month Comes to a Close

Economic Commentary Every month we have important economic data releases and events. But only a few times per year do we have the most important releases lined up during the same week. Our definition of a trifecta is a week in which we have the first reading of economic growth for a quarter (Second Quarter GDP), a meeting of the...” Read More

Posted by starwest

July 22, 2025 – Back To The Fed

Economic Commentary It has been a busy month with regard to economic news. We started the month with the passage of a huge tax and spending bill and the release of a stronger-than-expected jobs report. These events were followed almost immediately with additional announcements of increased tariffs to be levied upon several countries. Of course, we should have suspected that...” Read More

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July 15, 2025 – The Great Big Tax Bill

Economic Commentary If you note, we left one adjective off the description of the bill which is now set to become law, it is because we are not here to assess whether the legislation is “good or bad” — but to assess the potential effects of the law on the real estate market. During this assessment, we will mostly avoid...” Read More

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July 8, 2025 – Is The Economy Slowing Enough to Support Lower Rates?

Economic Commentary The Federal Reserve will be meeting again at the end of the month and this meeting will be the last one scheduled before September – barring a national emergency. At least one Fed Governor has raised the possibility of a short-term rate decrease this month. However, this depends upon the direction of the economy. Thus far we have...” Read More

Posted by starwest

July 1, 2025 – A Stark Reminder

Economic Commentary As we look at the effect of tariffs, the pending tax bill, the jobs report, retail sales, inflation data and a host of other economic indicators, a few weeks ago we received a stark reminder of why the preponderance expert predictions could be for naught. And it was not unusual for that reminder to come directly from the...” Read More

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June 24, 2025 – The Verdict Is In

Economic Commentary Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met to consider the present and future direction of interest rates. Most analysts did not expect a rate decrease at this meeting, despite increased pressure from the Administration. It turns out that these predictions were right on point. As we pointed out last week, the recent data on inflation has...” Read More

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