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May 6, 2025 – Statistics

Economic Commentary If this title sounds familiar, we would not be surprised. From a famous quote by Mark Twain – to the title of a best-selling book — to a title of an episode of The West Wing on TV, it has been used again and again in the public eye. Numbers can be confusing and there are so many...” Read More

Posted by starwest

April 29, 2025 – Reforecasting The Year

Economic Commentary Every year we point out that forecasting the future is a futile exercise. Yet, we always publish these forecasts by the experts who are typically economists with major organizations such as Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, The National Association of Home Builders, etc. After all, they get paid the big bucks to tell us what is likely...” Read More

Posted by starwest

April 22, 2025 – Will They – Or Won’t They?

Economic Commentary The initial reaction to the tariff wars has been a major retrenchment in the stock markets and extreme volatility for bonds as well. With many analysts using the word recession repeatedly, an important question has arisen — should the Federal Reserve step in and implement an “emergency” rate cut.” We say “emergency” because there is no regularly scheduled...” Read More

Posted by starwest

April 15, 2025 – The Tariff Wars Have Arrived

Economic Commentary There are plenty of wars going on around the world. Ukraine and Gaza are just a few of the hot spots that have been in the news over the past few years. Now we have started a new war, only it does not involve guns – unless you are purchasing them. The tariff wars are raging and though...” Read More

Posted by starwest

April 8, 2025 – Uncertainty

Economic Commentary When it comes to economic performance, the term uncertainty is a dirty word. The financial markets do not like uncertainty. The consumer does not like uncertainty. Yet, we are hearing that word over and over again. The Federal Reserve is uncertain of how tariffs will affect inflation. The markets are uncertain about which tariffs will be implemented; hence...” Read More

Posted by starwest

April 1, 2025 – April Fools

Economic Commentary A few weeks ago, we wrote that there did not seem to be a major market reaction to the new policies of the Administration. But as time has gone on and more tariffs have been implemented — and even more scheduled, the stock market has reacted significantly with increased volatility – mostly on the downside. There has also...” Read More

Posted by starwest

March 25, 2025 – Wait and See Attitude

Economic Commentary The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met last week and as expected, they did not lower or raise their benchmark interest rate. Despite evidence of a softening of the economic climate, they choose to sit back and wait to see what the effects will be as certain new policies are implemented by the Administration. There certainly has been...” Read More

Posted by starwest

March 18, 2025 – Can Tariffs Lower Interest Rates?

Economic Commentary Thus far, we have just heard about the fact that the implementation of tariffs will increase prices. Another term for higher prices is the dreaded word inflation. And we all know what increased inflation brings to the table – higher interest rates. Gulp. The Federal Reserve is much less likely to lower interest rates in light of increased...” Read More

Posted by starwest

March 11, 2025 – Will Government Layoffs Affect the Job Market?

Economic Commentary The Administration has put their plans in place to eliminate tens of thousands of Federal employees. As the February jobs report was just released last week, we must start to ponder if these layoffs will affect the overall jobs market. If the private sector is strong enough, those unemployed could be absorbed into corporate positions. On the other...” Read More

Posted by starwest

March 4, 2025 – Interesting Employment Data on Tap

Economic Commentary Yes, the jobs report is always an important piece of economic data. But sometimes one particular report can be especially significant in the overall scheme of things. So, why would February’s report to be released this Friday have a higher level of consequence as opposed to the previous two reports? There are two reasons for highlighting this specific...” Read More

Posted by starwest

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