September 9, 2025 – What This Jobs Report Tells

Economic Commentary

July’s employment report had such a large revision of the previous two months of data, it is no wonder that the markets were anxiously waiting for the August figures in order to get a more complete picture of our workforce situation. It is one thing to see a month or two of concerning data. It is quite another to witness slower hiring over an entire quarter. So, what did the arrival of fresh data demonstrate to the markets?

For August, the preliminary data showed that 22,000 jobs were added to the workforce. By itself, this number was seen as a dismal showing.  Add the fact that the previous two months of data were revised downward by 21,000 jobs, it shows that the economy added an average of less than 30,000 jobs per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.3%, the highest in almost four years.  Wage growth grew 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% year-over-year. Overall, this report was seen as evidence that the economy is slowing.

Why would wages continue to grow amidst slower hiring? There are several theories, one of which is that the drop of approximately 750,000 immigrants from the workforce since January is the impetus for increased competition for labor. Regardless of the reason, higher wage growth leads to inflation. With stagnating job growth, the markets are betting on a rate decrease when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets next week. Speaking of inflation, the Consumer Price Index is due to be released this week.  One would think that only a spike in inflation would deter the Fed from lowering their benchmark interest rate and that may not even be enough to stop the Fed from acting.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates fell again last week as the jobs report approached.  According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates decreased to 6.50% last week from 6.56% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans fell to 5.60%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.35%, 0.15% lower than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates continue to trend down, increasing optimism for new buyers and current owners alike. As rates continue to drop, the number of homeowners who have the opportunity to refinance is expanding. In fact, the share of market mortgage applications that were for a refinance reached nearly 47%, the highest since October.”   Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

ATTOM released its Q2 2025 U.S. Home Equity and Underwater Report, finding that 47.4% of mortgaged residential properties are equity-rich. That was up from 46.2% in Q1 of this year. The recent peak was 49.2% in Q2 2024. ATTOM defines equity-rich as when the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by the properties is no more than half of their estimated value. In addition, 2.7% of mortgage residential properties were deemed seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the properties were at least 25% more than the properties’ estimated market values. That is down slightly from 2.8% in Q1, but higher than the 2.4% share in Q2 2024. “With home prices at record highs you’d expect to see owners enjoying more equity in their homes so it’s good to see equity-rich rates rebound after a few slower quarters,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. Source: ATTOM

While recent data suggests that housing supply is improving in many parts of the country, the National League of Cities (NLC) is beefing up an initiative to make sure that the issue of supply is addressed head-on. The National Association of REALTORS® announced that it’s joining the American Planning Association and the National Association of Home Builders to help NLC ramp up its America’s Housing Comeback initiative. America’s Housing Comeback aims to accelerate community progress on housing supply issues using the solutions, systems and partnership approach outlined in the Housing Supply Accelerator Playbook, NLC says. The initiative will bring federal attention to policies that are successful at the state and local level, as well as promote public-private partnerships to boost supply. “Housing attainability is a top priority for cities regardless of size, but addressing housing at scale also means upgrading or expanding public infrastructure, investing in skills training and growing the workforce, and improving systems that safeguard the health and safety of our nation’s housing stock,” says Clarence E. Anthony, CEO and executive director of the National League of Cities. “Local leaders are ready to build and improve the partnerships necessary to address these and other issues fundamental to housing supply.” Joining America’s Housing Comeback is one of a variety of ways that NAR advocates for housing supply and affordability at the state and local level. NAR has also focused on zoning reform, improving the permitting process for new builds and educating the public about policies that have negative impacts on affordability.  Source: NAR

An analysis of data from U.S. Mortgage Insurers (USMI) shows that private mortgage insurance (MI) helped more than 800,000 low downpayment borrowers qualify for home financing in 2024. Last year, homebuyers contended with constrained housing supply, high home prices, and elevated mortgage rates, but the report from U.S. Mortgage Insurers (USMI), 50 States of Low Down Payment Homebuying, highlights how hundreds of thousands of households across the country were able to become homeowners through low downpayment mortgages backed by private MI.  Since 2018, USMI has released an annual report examining how private MI helps bridge the downpayment gap and analyzes, at a state level, the borrowers who benefit from private MI. Low downpayment mortgages, including conventional loans backed by private MI, have proven critical for millions of borrowers to sustainably buy a home sooner, secure financial stability, and build wealth.  “For nearly seven decades, private MI has provided a dual benefit to the housing market: it creates homeownership opportunities for qualified borrowers–particularly first-time homebuyers–who lack substantial downpayments, while simultaneously serving as a robust safeguard against mortgage default, thereby reducing overall risk in both the housing and financial markets,” said Seth Appleton, President of USMI. The analysis shows that more than 800,000 households in 2024 became homeowners using low downpayment mortgages backed by private MI–an increase from 2023 and that 65% percent of purchasers with private MI in 2024 were first-time homebuyers. Source: Mortgage Point