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July 1, 2025 – A Stark Reminder

Economic Commentary As we look at the effect of tariffs, the pending tax bill, the jobs report, retail sales, inflation data and a host of other economic indicators, a few weeks ago we received a stark reminder of why the preponderance expert predictions could be for naught. And it was not unusual for that reminder to come directly from the...” Read More

Posted by starwest

June 24, 2025 – The Verdict Is In

Economic Commentary Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met to consider the present and future direction of interest rates. Most analysts did not expect a rate decrease at this meeting, despite increased pressure from the Administration. It turns out that these predictions were right on point. As we pointed out last week, the recent data on inflation has...” Read More

Posted by starwest

June 17, 2025 – Is This The One?

Economic Commentary Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is meeting. They have not lowered rates since December of last year, a period of six months. Publicly they have taken a “wait and see” approach to any rate change in light of the fact that tariff policy has thrown the markets into a tizzy featuring increased volatility. Their argument is...” Read More

Posted by starwest

June 10, 2025 – The Results Are In

Economic Commentary We have another month of job results in the books. For the month of May, the economy produced 139,000 jobs, very close to expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The previous two months of job gains were revised downward by 95,000, thus the numbers were weaker than they appear at face value. Finally, wage growth increased 0.4%...” Read More

Posted by starwest

June 3, 2025 – How Long Can This Job Machine Produce?

Economic Commentary We have been asking this question for quite a long time. Ever since the end of the pandemic, our nation’s economy has been producing millions of jobs per year. These jobs not only made up for the job losses during the pandemic but also added several million jobs in addition to those that were lost. At the same...” Read More

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May 27, 2025 – Make Up Your Mind

Economic Commentary We have this theory about the markets. The markets move sometimes with no rhyme or reason, but after the movement happens, we have high-paid analysts tell us why the markets made that movement. And they are very logical arguments – nothing like an alien spaceship was sighted. The next day the markets move in the opposite direction, and...” Read More

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May 20, 2025 – Could Tariffs Provide an Economic Spark?

Economic Commentary Thus far, we have only heard the negative side of the tariff forecasts. These prognostications have centered upon slower economic growth and increased inflation, which is a pretty bleak scenario. Few have talked about the threat of tariffs bringing a burst of economic activity, but this burst may actually happen within a few sectors of the economy. These...” Read More

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May 13, 2025 – The Fed Speaks

Economic Commentary The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee had not met for almost two months, but the Fed has sure stayed in the headlines. Whether giving a speech or testifying before Congress, Fed Chairman Powell has been quite adamant regarding the Fed’s “wait and see” attitude concerning the implementation of the new Administration’s policies. This is especially true with regard...” Read More

Posted by starwest

May 6, 2025 – Statistics

Economic Commentary If this title sounds familiar, we would not be surprised. From a famous quote by Mark Twain – to the title of a best-selling book — to a title of an episode of The West Wing on TV, it has been used again and again in the public eye. Numbers can be confusing and there are so many...” Read More

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April 29, 2025 – Reforecasting The Year

Economic Commentary Every year we point out that forecasting the future is a futile exercise. Yet, we always publish these forecasts by the experts who are typically economists with major organizations such as Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, The National Association of Home Builders, etc. After all, they get paid the big bucks to tell us what is likely...” Read More

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