May 6, 2025 – Statistics

Economic Commentary

If this title sounds familiar, we would not be surprised.  From a famous quote by Mark Twain – to the title of a best-selling book — to a title of an episode of The West Wing on TV, it has been used again and again in the public eye. Numbers can be confusing and there are so many ways to use them, especially in the real estate market. For example, a recent excerpt of an article we published by the Mortgage Bankers Association pointed out the National Association of Realtors estimated first time buyers last year at an all-time low of just under 25%. Yet, other measures show the number to be closer to 50%. How can you be that far off?

Similarly, a recent survey indicated that about 50% of non-owners think they will never be able to afford to own.  But let’s look at this number more closely. The percentage of USA homeownership is just under two-thirds. Thus, the number of rental households is about 35% of the population.  If you take 50% of this number, then we are talking about 17.5%. Three to four percent of these rental households are retired, bringing the number down to approximately 14%. Here is the point—if you looked at the headline, it appeared that 50% of Americans think they will never be able to purchase.  This is not to make light of today’s affordability issues, but the number is much smaller than that.

Speaking of numbers, we had the jobs report released on Friday.  We added 177,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The previous two months of gains were adjusted downward by 58,000 mitigating the gains somewhat. Wages increased 0.2% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year. Overall, this report was seen as right on target. The Fed will be looking hard at this report when they meet this week, especially considering the weak first quarter report on economic growth – though a surge in tariff beating imports may have skewed that report.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to experience significant day-to-day volatility, but they are staying within the same range. The weak economic report for the first quarter did put some downward pressure on rates, but the overall reaction was muted. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates decreased to 6.76% from 6.81% the week before. In addition, 15-year loans fell to 5.92%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 7.22%, 0.46% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates again declined this week. In recent weeks, rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have fallen even lower than the first quarter average of 6.83%.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

A new analysis from Redfin shows that in 44.4% of U.S. home sale transactions in Q1, home sellers made concessions to purchasers. That is only behind the 45.1% record high set at the beginning of 2023, and it is up from 39.3% a year ago. Data given by Redfin buyers’ agents nationwide, spanning rolling three-month periods from 2019 to the present, served as the basis for this analysis. When an agent notes that a seller offered something that helped lower the buyer’s overall cost of buying the house, that is considered a concession. This could include funds for mortgage-rate buydowns, closing costs, and/or repairs. Situations when the seller reduced the advertised price of their house or did so as a result of a negotiation with a buyer are not included.  According to Portland, Oregon-based Redfin Premier real estate agent Chaley McVay, most of the offers she writes for buyers ask the seller to make concessions, particularly if it’s the buyer’s first time buying a house. “Buyers used to ask for concessions to cover little things like repairs. Now they’re negotiating concessions so they can afford to buy a home,” McVay said. “A lot of sellers are offering money for mortgage-rate buydowns, and I recently had one seller cover seven months of HOA fees for the buyer.” Due to a shift in the property market in favor of buyers, sellers are making more and more compromises. Generally, purchasers have more negotiating power when they have more selections. Source: Redfin  

Properties in cities’ vibrant mixed-use districts—walkable urban areas that include office space, living areas, restaurants, and shops—might be the key to revitalizing urban areas hit hard by the one-two punch of work from home and the pandemic, according to a new CBRE analysis. More good news: there is 43.5 million square feet of space in the United States that could be upgraded or converted for mixed-use purposes.  The study, which looked at 68 mixed-use areas in 19 U.S. markets, found that not only were office vacancies lower in mixed-use areas compared to that city’s nonprime business districts (18% vs. 22%), but office rents in prime mixed-use areas were higher. (Nonprime areas tended to be office parks lacking both high-quality office space and live/work/play luxuries.)  “Reinvigorating city cores will be no easy task, but there are roadmaps for every city to consider,” said Julie Whelan, CBRE Global Head of Occupier Research. “Vibrant mixed-use districts provide a blueprint for vitality that cities can strive to foster in other neighborhoods.”  CBRE suggested strengthening existing mixed-use districts and encouraging development of non-office space in primarily office areas, such as adding apartments and upgrading existing office spaces. That 43.5 million square feet of space across those districts could be converted into 43,500 apartments and other residential units. Other options include revitalizing obsolete buildings in nonprime business areas, which accounted for 58% of the total office space in the cities reviewed.  Of course, there are other factors that could complicate conversion plans, such as a building’s structural integrity, value, the cost of conversion, and local zoning laws.  Source: Mortgage Point

As housing affordability reached its lowest point since 2006, one group stood out in defying market trends—single women. In 2024, the homeownership rate among single women rose slightly to 51.9%, up from 51.8% in 2023. This modest increase continues a recovery from its 2016 low of 49.3% and contrasts sharply with the overall homeownership rate, which declined due to affordability challenges. More than 20 million single women owned homes in 2024, surpassing single men, who owned 14 million homes. Not only do single women own more homes than their male counterparts, but they also maintain a higher homeownership rate of 51.9%, compared to 49.6% among single men. Single women are making notable financial sacrifices to achieve homeownership. According to a National Association of Realtors (NAR) survey, many are cutting back on non-essential spending, canceling vacations, and even taking second jobs to save for a down payment and afford homeownership.  Owning a home provides significant financial advantages, including equity gains and appreciation in home values. Each mortgage payment serves as a form of forced savings, helping homeowners build wealth over time. Historically, homeownership has been a major wealth-building tool in the U.S., and single women are taking full advantage. Between 2019 and 2022, the median net worth of single women grew from $54,400 to $74,500. For those who own homes, the impact was even more significant—their median net worth jumped from $199,400 to $266,500 in the same period. Additionally, a home remains the largest asset for most single women, accounting for 66% of their total wealth in 2022.  Source: NAR