July 14, 2026 – Getting The Story Strait

Economic Commentary

With the signing of the “Memorandum of Understanding” things seemed to have quieted down in the Middle East. This was great news for the markets as immediately the price of oil and interest rates fell. And as we have mentioned previously, the stock market continued to perform well even when things did not look so rosy within the region. Of course, we all knew that the permanent road to peace would take some time and the road traveled ahead might contain several hiccups. But as long as oil and other goods were flowing through the Strait of Hormutz, the markets would continue to benefit.

Well, the path out of the strait is apparently not that straightforward, if you will excuse the pun. We were warned by analysts that it would take some time for things to get moving and it was understood that the reaction of the markets was in anticipation of better things ahead. Among other impediments was the fact that ships that were marooned within the strait for months had accumulated mussels and barnacles which had to be cleaned off. What we did not anticipate, but perhaps we should have, was the fact that shooting at the ships would occur – accompanied by escalating reprisals. Certainly, this occurrence has provided quite a deterrence to free and easy shipping.

What does all of this mean?  While we can hope for a favorable endgame that includes a permanent peace agreement, the road ahead is likely to continue to be bumpy. The markets’ initial reaction was very positive, so as reality sets in, we can expect some volatility in the markets as these bumps hit. But we expect that the consumers’ reaction during these times will be much more positive than when we were participating in an intense conflict.  Consumer confidence is the key with regard to keeping the economy, and especially the real estate markets, moving in the right direction during the summer months.  Let’s hope for a long, hot summer in this regard!

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates rose in the past week as hostilities in the Middle East reemerged after a quiet period. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.49% last week from 6.43% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also increased to 5.82%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.72%, 0.23% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates have not changed much recently, but economic growth and housing affordability continue to improve for homebuyers as they shop for homes in today’s market.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Mortgage Research Network found that nearly 360,000 women under age 45 purchased homes on their own last year, representing 11.4% of all home purchase loans nationwide. The study analyzed purchase mortgages across the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas and found significant differences in where single women are most likely to become homeowners. The findings suggest affordability remains one of the strongest factors influencing homeownership opportunities for single-income borrowers. “Where women are buying on their own varies dramatically by market, and affordability appears to be one of the strongest drivers,” said Tim Lucas, lead analyst and report author at Mortgage Research Network. The report found that single women purchased homes at nearly twice the rate in the top-ranked metros compared with the lowest-ranked markets. Across the top five metropolitan areas, single female buyers accounted for an average of 15.8% of purchase mortgages, compared with just 7.6% across the bottom five.  While affordability helps determine where single women buy homes, income continues to play a significant role in who can enter the market. Across the highest-ranked metros, single female homebuyers earned substantially more than the typical single woman in their local market.  The study found that affordable markets in the South, Midwest, and Northeast dominated the rankings.  Source: National Mortgage Professional

Did you know there are more households with pets than children? And these beloved pets are a driver of economic activity, namely, home buying. About one-fifth of recent home buyers considered their pet when choosing a neighborhood, a share that increases among unmarried couples and single women buyers. According to the U.S. Census, the share of families with children under the age of 18 living in their home has continued to decline. The share of families with children under the age of 18 in 2024 stood at 39%, down from 52% in 1950. This is likely due to two reasons: Birth rates, overall, have been declining, and a large share of baby boomer households have already seen their children leave the nest.  This trend is also reflected among home buyers. In 1985, 58% of home buyers had children under the age of 18 in their homes. In 2024, just 27% of home buyers had a child under the age of 18 in their home. This is an all-time record low.  While the number of children in U.S. households has declined in the last 20 years, there has been a rise in pet ownership. According to the American Pet Products Association, 71% of American households own a pet. This is up from 56% in 1988. Given the increasing share of pets in households and the growing time and resources devoted to them, it is no surprise that many home buyers consider their pets the most important factor when making homebuying decisions. Factors such as proximity to a veterinarian and outdoor space for pets are important considerations for buyers with pets. Among all unmarried couples, 24% of home buyers considered their pet when deciding on a neighborhood in which to purchase, compared to 15% of married couples.  Source: NAR

A record 25.2 million adults under 35 lived with their parents in 2025, surpassing even the pandemic peak, as housing costs continue to price young adults out of independent living, according to a new Realtor.com® report. One in 3 adults under 35 now shares a roof with a parent, a rate that has held near its 2020 record high with little sign of easing. The numbers reflect the accumulated weight of more than a decade of housing underproduction, which has kept persistent upward pressure on housing costs. Had early-2000s co-residence patterns held, 4.86 million fewer young adults would be living with their parents today. The United States currently faces a deficit of approximately 4 million homes, a gap that has widened since the construction slowdown following the 2008 financial crisis. “The adults living with their parents today are largely employed, and many hold college degrees. What’s holding them back isn’t a lack of qualifications, but rather, at least in part, a lack of housing they can actually afford,” said Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com®. “This is a supply story, not an employment story.” The adults living with their parents in 2025 do not fit the stereotype. Among those aged 25 to 34, approximately 70% are employed. In 2000, roughly 1 in 9 adults in their late 20s were both employed and living at home; by 2025, that ratio had grown to nearly 1 in 7, even as employment rates within the group held steady. The divergence points directly at housing costs, not labor market conditions. Roughly 9 in 10 adults aged 25 to 34 living with parents have never been married, up from 79% in 2000.  “Twenty-five million adults living with their parents represent a generation of latent demand the market hasn’t absorbed,” said Jones. “Every adult still in a childhood bedroom is a household not formed, a lease unsigned, a starter home unpurchased.” Source: PR Newswire