June 9, 2026 – Are Jobs Less Important?

Economic Commentary

We have always pointed to the monthly employment report as the bellwether of economic indicators. And it is hard to argue against this line of reasoning. After all, it is working individuals that power the economy.  When jobs are plentiful, the economy is typically humming along.  And when unemployment rises, we are typically heading for a recession.

During the past year and a half, we have turned these assumptions around somewhat.  The economy has created fewer jobs in the past year than any non-recessionary period in memory.  We have previously discussed the reasons for the lack of job creation. And with regard to predictions and analysis, we are in unchartered territory. There are so many factors in play this year that it will be hard to predict whether this pace of job creation will be a new normal.  Certainly, elevated inflation numbers will also be an important part of the equation.  One thing is for sure, there is never a dull moment when you are talking about our nation’s economy and the world’s economy as well.

Speaking of jobs. In May the economy added 172,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.  The previous two months of gains were revised upward by 93,000 jobs.  Thus far in 2026, the economy has added an average of approximately 110,000 jobs per month.  Wage growth was up 0.3% from the previous month and 3.4% annually.  Overall, this report was considered a considerable improvement compared to last year.  Considering just a few years ago, a gain of 150,000 jobs was considered average jobs growth in a decent economy, this brings us back to the question we asked previously.  Is the last quarter bringing us back to the normal rate of jobs growth, or are we going to have a new normal of lower jobs added?

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates continued to be relatively stable from week-to-week despite major daily volatility. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates eased to 6.48% last week from 6.53% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans also decreased to 5.79%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.85%, 0.37% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 6.48% this week. With mortgage rates in the mid-6% range and income growth outpacing home price growth, housing affordability is marginally improving.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

A new job, a new city, a new school district. Those changes usually come before a mortgage application. And the data makes that clear: renting is still the dominant first step for most movers, especially when the move crosses state lines. Nationally, about 27.5% of interstate movers own a home in their first year after moving. That means that nearly three-quarters start out as renters. That share drops even further for international movers. In contrast, households that move locally—within the same county—are much more likely to buy right away. This pattern isn’t new. In fact, it’s been remarkably consistent over time. Looking back nearly two decades, the share of interstate movers who own their homes has followed the broader housing market conditions. In the mid-2000s, roughly 30% of interstate movers were homeowners. That share fell sharply during the housing bust, bottoming out below 20% in the early 2010s. As the market recovered, homeownership among movers gradually increased, reaching the mid-20% range by the late 2010s. Then came the pandemic. In 2020 and 2021, the share of interstate movers buying homes rose above 30%, peaking near 33%. Ultra-low mortgage rates, remote work flexibility, and a surge of relocations made purchasing a home financially feasible for many households. But by 2024, the share of interstate movers who own a home is back to 27.5%, almost exactly where it was in 2019. While the national average tells us that most interstate movers rent initially, some metro areas are clearly defying that trend. What these markets have in common is a combination of relative affordability and available housing stock.  Source: NAR Economists’ Outlook

ABC10 anchor Lora Painter helps answer a viewer’s question about today’s housing market and takes a closer look at a strategy some homebuyers are using to secure lower mortgage rates, despite borrowing costs remaining above 6% at times. Viewer Laura Wasowicz-Pollard wrote in saying: “A friend of ours just bought their first home by assuming a 3% mortgage rate from the sellers. Can you explain how that works? Seems like a great way to bypass the higher interest rates right now.”  To answer the question, Sacramento-area real estate broker Kevin Oto explained how mortgage assumptions work and why they can appeal to buyers trying to improve affordability. “So if you’re assuming someone’s mortgage, it means you’re buying a house, and the buyer is going to take over the seller’s existing mortgage while keeping that low rate,” said Kevin Oto, broker and owner of Greenhaven Capitol. Assuming a mortgage allows a buyer to take over a seller’s existing home loan, including the remaining balance, interest rate and repayment term.  Oto said buyers may benefit when sellers purchased homes in 2021 or 2022, when mortgage rates were significantly lower.  “It’s possible, but it’s not as easy as it sounds. The loan first of all has to be assumable, and typically it’s only FHA or VA or USDA loans that are assumable. So conventional loans are typically not assumable,” Oto said. Buyers must still qualify with the seller’s lender, which is similar to the approval process for a traditional mortgage. Another hurdle is the home equity difference, or the gap between the current loan balance and the home’s purchase price. Buyers are typically responsible for covering that amount themselves. The process can also take longer than a traditional home loan, which may create challenges in a competitive housing market.  Source: ABC 10 Sacramento

Due to mortgage repayment and property appreciation, the majority of Americans’ wealth originates from their homes.  To find out if returns differ by income and demography, a new study conducted by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College looked at the selling side of the transaction. The degree to which home-seller returns fluctuate throughout the course of a homeowner’s life, and specifically whether elderly homeowners receive the same returns as their younger counterparts, is one important question. For a home with the typical holding duration (11 years), an 80-year-old seller realizes roughly 0.5% less annually than a 45-year-old, which translates to a 5% lower sales price. This decrease results in a $20,000 loss on the average property price of $400,000. This result is the result of two causes. First, older people’s residences are less likely to be kept up. Second, elder homeowners are more likely to sell to investors and sell their houses off-MLS. Policy measures could be helpful in this case.  In Illinois, legislation aimed at increasing the transparency of private listings led to a considerable decrease in the number of private listings and the size of the age difference.  Source: MP Daily