March 4, 2025 – Interesting Employment Data on Tap

Economic Commentary

Yes, the jobs report is always an important piece of economic data.  But sometimes one particular report can be especially significant in the overall scheme of things.  So, why would February’s report to be released this Friday have a higher level of consequence as opposed to the previous two reports? There are two reasons for highlighting this specific data.  First, it is the first report which contains data under the realm of the new administration.

While we don’t expect that the administration’s actions could have significant effects upon the overall economic picture in the first few weeks, we have had actions such as the implementation of tariffs and government layoffs that can affect the way companies react. For example, if concerned, companies could be more reticent to hire. On the other hand, if they are more optimistic, they could be hiring employees more robustly. Other than within the government, there has been little evidence of higher levels of layoffs thus far. 

The second reason this report will be highlighted is the fact that the January jobs report was slightly weaker than expected. One month of weaker data is not a concern, especially considering the fact that December was a very vigorous hiring month. But two months of weak job data could be the beginning of a trend. Plus, the Fed meets in two weeks and any evidence of a slowdown in job growth could spur them to lower short-term rates, with a caveat. That caveat concerns inflation.  There would need to be a slowdown in overall wage inflation as well in order for the Fed to be likely to take this action.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. The Freddie Mac rate survey indicated that mortgage rates continued to move lower last week as the market reacted to reports showing the economy was slowing. According to the survey, 30-year fixed rates decreased to 6.76% from 6.85% the week before. In addition, 15-year loans fell to 5.94%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.94%, slightly higher than today. Attributed to Sam Khater, Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, “This week, mortgage rates decreased to their lowest level in over two months. The drop-in mortgage rates, combined with modestly improving inventory, is an encouraging sign for consumers in the market to buy a home.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

The migration landscape across the U.S. remained dynamic in 2023, with approximately 7.5 million Americans moving to a different state, according to a StorageCafe study. While this figure aligns with trends over the past decade, moving within the same state has reached historic lows, dropping to just over 9% of the population.  The southern U.S. continues to dominate state-to-state migration, with seven of the top ten states for net migration located in the region. Texas, for the first time in a decade, overtook Florida as the leading destination, with over 137,000 new residents. Meanwhile, smaller states like North Dakota, Idaho, Delaware, and Vermont experienced significant population gains relative to their size.  In 2023, Gen Z and millennials were the most mobile generations, with roughly 2.2 million individuals from each group relocating to a new state. This accounts for nearly 60% of all state-to-state migration. While millennials favored financially promising states like Texas and Florida, Gen Z gravitated toward regions offering both job opportunities and lifestyle appeal, such as the Carolinas and Arizona.  Gen X and baby boomers accounted for just 12% and 11% of moves, respectively, as these groups are generally more settled in their careers or retirement.  The expense of moving has risen dramatically, with local moves costing between $400 and $1,000 and cross-country relocations for larger homes ranging from $8,000 to $11,000. Remote work also continues to play a crucial role in migration trends, with 20% of long-distance movers identifying as remote workers compared to 14% of the general population. Among those who relocated to a new state in 2023, 39% became homeowners within their first year, underscoring the continued appeal of homeownership for those making long-distance moves.  Source: Mortgage Point

According to our survey, 75% of seniors are neither working nor looking for work, while 3% are actively job searching, 11% work part-time, and another 11% work full-time. Seniors aged 65 to 70 are more likely to still be in the workforce, with only 66% not working or job searching. About 18% are employed full-time, 13% part-time, and 3% are seeking work.  “One thing seniors returning to or still in the workforce need to be aware of is age discrimination,” says ResumeTemplates’ Chief Career Strategist Julia Toothacre.  “When searching for a job later in your career, there are a few tactics you can use to at least get past the screening process. First, don’t put dates for your degrees as they will signal your age, even if they were obtained later in life. Second, don’t put your entire work history on your resume. Stick to the past 10 to 15 years of relevant experience. Third, look for jobs that celebrate experience and advanced age (e.g., nonprofits, consulting, coaching, and board participation).  It’s also good to look for anything directly related to what you did previously or where you have connections.” Among seniors who are currently employed or job hunting, 22% had previously retired before rejoining the workforce, while 78% have never retired. Rising living costs, debt, and boredom are the most common reasons for leaving retirement. Some seniors also cite concerns over Trump’s election and potential impacts on Social Security and Medicare as motivation to return to work. Most don’t plan to retire again for at least three years.  Source: Resume Templates

According to a recent Zillow Rentals report, the “singles tax”—the additional cost single tenants pay for a one-bedroom as opposed to splitting rent with roommates or partners—has skyrocketed to a record-high $7,562. “Living alone means complete control over a space. Renters can decorate exactly how they like, play their favorite music on repeat, and never compromise on the thermostat setting,” according to Emily McDonald, Zillow’s rental trends expert. “But the financial reality of solo renting is something every renter should consider. Understanding the full cost of living alone can help renters decide if it’s the right move for their lifestyle and budget.”  In line with the general trend of rising rents, the individuals’ tax went up by almost $450 from the previous year. At least one roommate can be financially lucrative, as seen by the $15,123 that couples or housemates nationwide save each year on a one-bedroom apartment. The city with the highest singles tax was once again New York City. According to StreetEasy, Zillow’s New York City brand, the annual premium for single renters is an astounding $20,100. NYC has continuously had the highest singles tax, demonstrating that independence comes at a particularly high cost in the Big Apple.  Source: Zillow