May 5, 2026 – It’s Employment Report Time

Economic Commentary

Usually, the jobs data does not resemble a roller coaster. But for the first quarter of the year, that is exactly what we have experienced. In January, the economy added 160,000 jobs, which was not bad. In February the economy shed 133,000 jobs, which is very bad. In March, the economy added 178,000 jobs (back to not bad). What a wild ride!  Both February and March data are still subject to revisions. If you average the three months, we added just under 70,000 jobs per month during the first quarter, again subject to revision.

Expecting things to get quieter? The April data to be released this week will include a full month of the economy operating under the influence of the war in the Middle East. The immediate effects of the conflict would be difficult to predict, but since we have had so many wild swings this year, any major movement will be even harder to decipher. Speaking of the conflict, by mid-April it was hard to decipher whether the conflict was on or off.  One side was declaring the Strait of Hormuz open, and the other side was declaring it closed.  Confused? We sure are. The rhetoric has caused a roller coaster effect upon oil prices.

We would guess that higher energy prices will cut economic growth somewhat in the short term. If the prices continue to trend higher, this contraction is likely to widen in the medium term. In the long term, defense spending will rise significantly, and this could boost economic growth and employment. While this increase might offset the earlier effects of the conflict, any boost in government spending will exacerbate government deficits, which in turn could create another set of difficulties highlighted by increased interest rates. The moral of the story?  Everything is connected and expect another wild ride.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates reversed course last week as the Fed expressed concern about prices in their decision to leave rates steady and the conflict rhetoric heated up significantly. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.30% last week from 6.23% the previous week. In addition, 15-year loans increased to 5.64%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.76%, 0.46% higher than today. Attributed to Freddie Mac: “As rates had modestly declined the last few weeks, purchase demand has accelerated with purchase applications rising to over 20 percent above a year ago. Purchase demand continues to hold up as prospective buyers react to both modestly lower rates and more inventory to choose from than the last few years.” Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Parents are taking financial leaps in order to help their children buy a home, helping young buyers navigate affordability while depleting their own resources. That’s according to a survey from Veterans United Home Loans, which found that six in ten parents have already helped a child afford a home, or are planning to. Military families are particularly open to helping a younger member buy a house, with 68% of Veterans and service members saying they have helped or plan to help, compared with 49% of civilians. The biggest way parents are helping is by contributing to the down payment (43% of respondents). Others are helping their children qualify for a mortgage (37%) or cover the closing costs (33%). But parents aren’t just focused on the short term. About one-third want to help their kids build wealth through homeownership, and others want to make monthly payments more manageable or help them buy in better neighborhoods or school districts. Help is mostly coming directly, whether it’s contributing to the down payment (33%), giving cash gifts (30%), paying off debt to strengthen credit (30%), covering closing costs (27%), or letting their kids live at home to save money (27%). Some, however, are even planning to contribute to furniture, renovations, or moving expenses. Investing in a house earlier in life, even if it requires support, could pay dividends for the whole family.  A recent report from Realtor.com found that buying a home earlier in life acts as a “wealth multiplier,” leading to a 22.5% higher net worth by age 50 than for those who wait until their 40s. That translates to $119,000 more.  Source: The Mortgage Note

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the 2025 population estimates, which include key metrics such as population growth, natural change, domestic and international migration, and net migration. Together, these indicators shed light on national demographic shifts, offering insight into housing market trends and changes in 2026. Last year, the U.S. experienced a historic decline in international migration, slowing overall population growth. Between 2024 and 2025, population growth totaled only 1.8 million (0.5%), the slowest increase since 2021, when the population growth rate reached a historic low (0.2%) amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown—largely caused by a decline in international migration—comes after a significant uptick in the U.S. population growth in 2024, when the nation grew by 1.0%, the fastest annual growth rate since 2006. Looking at domestic migration, the South region remained the most popular destination for U.S. movers, accounting for nine of the 15 states with the largest domestic migration gains.  While domestic migration increased in 32 states last year, international migration declined nationwide. In total, international migration dropped from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. As in prior years, Florida remained the most popular state for international movers, followed by Texas, California, and New York.  Source: The National Association of Realtors

A survey from Best Interest Financial and Clever Real Estate found that 35% of current homeowners with mortgage rates under 6% wouldn’t give up those mortgages for “any reason.” For those with mortgages under 3%, 52% said they wouldn’t give it up for any reason. About one in five said they would consider giving up their mortgage rate due to a major life change, like having a child or moving for a job. One in eight would give it up for the right home. Forty-seven percent of borrowers with mortgages under 6% do not think they could afford one at the current rate. Payments weigh heavily–one in 10 homeowners say mortgage payments are their biggest financial stressor. For those paying above 6%, almost two-thirds of respondents say they’ve cut back on spending, worked a side gig or made other sacrifices to pay it. Homeowners with high rates are much more likely to feel negative emotions about their mortgage. Only 22% of borrowers overall have negative feelings, compared with 41% of those with a rate of 6% or more. And 49% of mortgage holders say rates have affected their housing decisions. Eighty-seven percent intend to remain in their homes over the next two years.   While falling interest rates might increase the share of homeowners willing to sell, two-thirds don’t think mortgage rates will ever return to pandemic-era lows.  Source: The Mortgage Bankers Association