November 3, 2026 – It’s Election Day

Economic Commentary

It is not often that we name a column Election Day one week after publishing a column called Fed Day, but this is one of those exceptions.  As a matter of fact, we speculated that the election occurring one week after the Federal Reserve meeting might have a slight effect upon the Fed decision.  In other words, the Fed would be more disinclined to raise rates.  Indeed, the Fed did not raise interest rates last week, but we likely will never know if the timing of the election affected their decision.   The next question is whether the Fed is now more likely to raise rates at their next meeting in December. Based upon the last Consumer and Price Indices readings, the answer is yes.  Last week we saw the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index and this reading continued to be elevated. 

What else could affect the Fed’s thinking regarding their next move?  This week we will see the release of the October jobs report and if it is as weak as the September report, that may give the Fed some apprehension towards raising rates.  In addition, we will see another employment report released just before the next meeting of the Fed.  There will also be a revision of last week’s preliminary third quarter measure of economic growth (GDP), which initially came in at a strong 3.4%. In other words, there will be plenty of releases providing a plethora of economic indicators to the Fed before they will make their final rate decision of the year. 

On the geo-political side, it would not be surprising for activity surrounding the Middle East to heat up after election day. While we all hope that this activity will center around peace talks, there is also a chance that hostilities will increase.  While there has been somewhat a pause in our engagement in the conflict, the battles have spread throughout the Middle East and thus the situation remains quite precarious. Will the results of the election change any of these equations? Since it is not a Presidential Election, alterations in these scenarios are not likely to come overnight, even if the leadership in Congress changes hands. We do have one major prediction – the Republicans and Democrats will continue to fight after the elections are over. But perhaps we can have some semblance of partisanship show up in Washington in 2027 because we have plenty of problems to solve.

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Mortgage rates eased again this past week as the markets stayed fairly calm, especially considering the Fed was meeting mid-week.  The reaction to the Fed decision to hold rates steady was minimal as it was expected. The Fed statement acknowledged inflation continued to run too hot but indicated they preferred to wait and assess the plethora of data to be released before their next meeting in December. According to the Freddie Mac weekly survey, 30-year fixed rates fell to 7.24% last week from 7.32% the previous week. In addition, 15-year rates decreased to 6.60%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.17%, slightly more than 1.0% lower than today.  Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Real Estate News

Daunted by today’s high housing costs, prospective homebuyers are weighing an alternative option, trendy enough to generate at least a couple of hashtags. About 71% of Americans would consider “co-buying,” the term given to purchasing a home with someone other than a spouse, according to a report from Neighbors Bank. Sixty percent said they would rather buy now and share ownership rather than wait. While a slim 8% percent of those polled said they were open to buying a home with someone they didn’t know but were matched with via an app or platform, most respondents preferred familiar faces. Family garnered the greatest interest, with 44% who would consider buying with a parent, compared with 41% open to co-buying with a sibling and 40% open to co-buying with an unmarried romantic partner. Their openness narrowed after that, with 30% saying they would consider buying with a close friend, 27% with their adult child, and 19% another relative. People were less interested in buying with a coworker or a roommate than with a total stranger; only 7% would consider it. Unsurprisingly, interest in co-buying partners varied across generations and income. Gen Z respondents, the country’s youngest homebuyers with the least time to build savings, were the most open to buying with a friend: 45% compared to 24% of baby boomers, the group least interested in buying with a friend. Still, 41% of those Gen Z respondents considered the potential partnership as weighty a commitment as marriage. They were also the least likely to want a buyout or exit plan, 52% compared to 79% of the survey’s oldest baby boomer buyers.  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau suggests that, regardless of whether you are purchasing with a sibling, friend, or stranger, you “establish a cohabitation agreement that outlines how the property will be divided between you in case of financial disputes down the line.”   Source: Homes.com

Your teens and 20s are traditionally a period of great change, and that’s clearly true for today’s Gen Zers, the oldest of whom was 27 in 2024 — the year LendingTree’s recent report covers. The analysis found that for many Gen Zers, that change included moving across state lines.   There were 44.6 million Gen Z adults in the U.S. in 2024. An estimated 10.7 million of them moved to another state or the District of Columbia that year. That’s slightly more than the 10.4 million millennials ages 28 to 43 who did the same. However, as a share of each age group, the difference is stark: 23.9% of Gen Z adults moved across state lines in 2024, compared with 14.0% of millennials, 7.2% of Gen Xers ages 44 to 59 and 5.2% of baby boomers ages 60 to 78. Interstate migration patterns varied widely by state. Thirty-one states and the District of Columbia had more Gen Zers move in than out. South Carolina led the way. An estimated 60,223 Gen Z adults moved into the Palmetto State, while 37,380 moved out, for a net gain of 22,843. The Golden State had a net loss of 58,109 Gen Z adults in 2024. An estimated 128,718 Gen Zers moved into California, second only to Texas nationally. However, 186,827 Gen Zers moved out, by far the most from any state. The nation’s capital had a net gain of 13,905 Gen Z adults in 2024 due to interstate migration.  Source: LendingTree

AI is making it easier to create picture perfect listings, from replacing skies and removing objects to adding in virtual furniture. As writer Melissa Dittmann Tracey reports, new global research from Coraly, a property portal tech company, found that one in nine primary listing photos on leading U.S. property portals show signs of being altered, and more than 90% of those images carried no visible disclosure on the image or immediately adjacent listing context. As altered listing photos face greater scrutiny from states, real estate organizations and buyers, several companies part of NAR’s REACH program are developing tools to increase transparency around digitally altered property images. Coraly and Restb.ai, for example, have tools that can detect altered or potentially noncompliant images and help MLSs and portals maintain a record of changes and disclosures.  “My rule is simple: Improve the photograph, not the property,” says Fouad Bekkar, founder of Coraly. AI tools can be useful presenting a home in its best light, Bekkar says, but “the line is crossed when an edit changes a reasonable buyer’s understanding of the property’s condition, dimensions, contents, structure, surroundings or view.”  Source: National Association of Realtors